diff --git a/tests/applications/modelling_e2e/test_handler.py b/tests/applications/modelling_e2e/test_handler.py
index eb3e943c6..88374a5d9 100644
--- a/tests/applications/modelling_e2e/test_handler.py
+++ b/tests/applications/modelling_e2e/test_handler.py
@@ -1473,6 +1473,52 @@ def test_gov_cert_is_used_when_nothing_is_stored() -> None:
     assert chosen_is_fetched is True
 
 
+def test_stored_survey_survives_a_gov_register_with_no_cert() -> None:
+    """The second failure shape in #1589: recently-surveyed homes have no public
+    cert, and a None from the register must not wipe out the stored survey."""
+    # Arrange
+    from applications.modelling_e2e.handler import _newer_lodged
+
+    stored = _lodged_epc("2026-05-01")
+
+    # Act
+    chosen, chosen_is_fetched = _newer_lodged(stored, None)
+
+    # Assert
+    assert chosen is stored
+    assert chosen_is_fetched is False
+
+
+def test_no_lodged_epc_from_either_source_defers_to_prediction() -> None:
+    """Neither source has an assessment: the caller gets None and predicts."""
+    # Arrange
+    from applications.modelling_e2e.handler import _newer_lodged
+
+    # Act
+    chosen, chosen_is_fetched = _newer_lodged(None, None)
+
+    # Assert
+    assert chosen is None
+    assert chosen_is_fetched is False
+
+
+def test_same_day_assessments_prefer_the_stored_survey() -> None:
+    """Exact inspection_date tie: ADR-0001's "if we surveyed it, trust the
+    survey" breaks it for the stored side."""
+    # Arrange
+    from applications.modelling_e2e.handler import _newer_lodged
+
+    stored = _lodged_epc("2026-05-01")
+    fetched = _lodged_epc("2026-05-01")
+
+    # Act
+    chosen, chosen_is_fetched = _newer_lodged(stored, fetched)
+
+    # Assert
+    assert chosen is stored
+    assert chosen_is_fetched is False
+
+
 def test_refetch_epc_false_with_stored_epc_skips_api_call() -> None:
     """refetch_epc=False + stored lodged EPC present: EpcClientService.get_by_uprn
     is never called; the stored EPC is used and reaches run_modelling."""