feat(modelling): wire the ASHP bundle into the candidate pool

recommend_heating now receives planning_restrictions in the orchestrator (the
ASHP planning gate); the ASHP bundle joins the free candidate pool for every
house/bungalow. Catalogue + contingency (legacy 0.25) gain air_source_heat_pump;
report.py _triggers_for explains the ASHP trigger; the harness forcing test
covers it. Integration tests seed an air_source_heat_pump MaterialRow (ASHP
fires on every house, the broadest trigger yet). NB the optimiser correctly does
NOT select ASHP for an EPC-band goal — gas->electric does not improve the SAP
cost-rating; ASHP is a CO2/PE measure, selectable once non-EPC goals land. ASHP
bundle COMPLETE (S5-S7). ADR-0024.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>

domain/modelling/contingencies.py

@@ -19,6 +19,7 @@ _CONTINGENCY_RATES: dict[str, float] = {
     "secondary_glazing": 0.15,
     "low_energy_lighting": 0.26,
     "high_heat_retention_storage_heaters": 0.10,
+    "air_source_heat_pump": 0.25,
 }
 
 

harness/report.py

@@ -144,6 +144,15 @@ def _triggers_for(epc: EpcPropertyData, measure_type: str) -> dict[str, Any]:
             ),
             "mains_gas": epc.sap_energy_source.mains_gas,
         }
+    if measure_type == "air_source_heat_pump":
+        # heating_recommendation.py offers ASHP to any non-flat house/bungalow
+        # not already a heat pump (eligibility is physical/planning only).
+        return {
+            "property_type": epc.property_type,
+            "main_heating_category": (
+                epc.sap_heating.main_heating_details[0].main_heating_category
+            ),
+        }
     return {}
 
 

harness/sample_catalogue.json

@@ -11,5 +11,6 @@
   "double_glazing": { "unit_cost_per_m2": 600.0 },
   "secondary_glazing": { "unit_cost_per_m2": 510.0 },
   "low_energy_lighting": { "unit_cost_per_m2": 8.0 },
-  "high_heat_retention_storage_heaters": { "unit_cost_per_m2": 3500.0 }
+  "high_heat_retention_storage_heaters": { "unit_cost_per_m2": 3500.0 },
+  "air_source_heat_pump": { "unit_cost_per_m2": 12000.0 }
 }

orchestration/modelling_orchestrator.py

@@ -210,7 +210,7 @@ def _candidate_recommendations(
         recommend_floor_insulation(effective_epc, products),
         recommend_glazing(effective_epc, products, planning_restrictions),
         recommend_lighting(effective_epc, products),
-        recommend_heating(effective_epc, products),
+        recommend_heating(effective_epc, products, planning_restrictions),
     )
     return [recommendation for recommendation in found if recommendation is not None]
 

tests/harness/test_console.py

@@ -35,6 +35,7 @@ _GENERATOR_MEASURE_TYPES = (
     "secondary_glazing",
     "low_energy_lighting",
     "high_heat_retention_storage_heaters",
+    "air_source_heat_pump",
 )
 
 

tests/orchestration/test_ara_first_run_pipeline_integration.py

@@ -128,6 +128,14 @@ def test_first_run_baselines_through_repos_and_is_idempotent_on_rerun(
         # the double-glazing Product (ADR-0022).
         session.add_all(
             [
+                MaterialRow(
+                    id=5,
+                    type="air_source_heat_pump",
+                    total_cost=12000.0,
+                    cost_unit="gbp_per_unit",
+                    is_active=True,
+                    description="Air source heat pump",
+                ),
                 MaterialRow(
                     id=1,
                     type="solid_floor_insulation",
@@ -244,6 +252,14 @@ def test_modelling_optimises_and_persists_a_multi_measure_plan(
         )
         session.add_all(
             [
+                MaterialRow(
+                    id=5,
+                    type="air_source_heat_pump",
+                    total_cost=12000.0,
+                    cost_unit="gbp_per_unit",
+                    is_active=True,
+                    description="Air source heat pump",
+                ),
                 MaterialRow(
                     id=1,
                     type="cavity_wall_insulation",
@@ -407,6 +423,14 @@ def test_modelling_recommends_nothing_when_already_at_the_target_band(
         # nothing is ultimately selected.
         session.add_all(
             [
+                MaterialRow(
+                    id=14,
+                    type="air_source_heat_pump",
+                    total_cost=12000.0,
+                    cost_unit="gbp_per_unit",
+                    is_active=True,
+                    description="Air source heat pump",
+                ),
                 MaterialRow(
                     id=10,
                     type="cavity_wall_insulation",
@@ -548,6 +572,14 @@ def test_listed_uprn_ingested_blocks_solid_wall_insulation_in_modelling(
         # ventilation dependency, so every Product they reach for must exist.
         session.add_all(
             [
+                MaterialRow(
+                    id=5,
+                    type="air_source_heat_pump",
+                    total_cost=12000.0,
+                    cost_unit="gbp_per_unit",
+                    is_active=True,
+                    description="Air source heat pump",
+                ),
                 MaterialRow(
                     id=1,
                     type="external_wall_insulation",