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Re-baseline the pashub gauge to 23% within-0.5 / MAE 1.41 for the orientation fix

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Khalim-authorised MAE loosening: coding window orientation exposes the known
SAP-10.2-vs-lodged offset the zeroed solar gains were masking; within-0.5 is
the north-star metric and jumps 20.0% -> 23.9%.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar 2026-07-15 08:51:52 +00:00
parent 27accc6bb1
commit 21674d5ed0
1 changed files with 16 additions and 2 deletions
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18
backend/documents_parser/tests/test_pashub_sap_accuracy.py
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@ -86,7 +86,9 @@ _MANIFEST_PATH = _FIXTURES_DIR / "manifest.json"
# MAE 1.730 — the campaign's largest single move.
# Ratcheted 0.18 -> 0.19 by the dig-round-3 fixes (see the MAE note below):
# observed 20.0% (41/205).
_MIN_WITHIN_HALF: float = 0.19
# Ratcheted 0.19 -> 0.23 by the window-orientation fix (see the MAE note
# below): observed 23.9% (49/205) — the campaign's largest within-0.5 move.
_MIN_WITHIN_HALF: float = 0.23
# Ratcheted 2.71 -> 2.64 by #1590 bug 2 (roof "Insulation At: None" -> explicit
# zero thickness): observed MAE 2.632 — the two ~7-SAP roof over-raters
# (507665533138 / 507670893756) correcting is exactly 14/205 ≈ 0.07 of MAE.
@ -123,7 +125,19 @@ _MIN_WITHIN_HALF: float = 0.19
# the main-wall U (spec area L x (0.25 + H)) instead of a Detailed `stud_wall`
# roof surface that dropped to the Table 18 col(4) 2.30 uninsulated default
# (78/72 North Road, +1.1 SAP each). Observed MAE 1.3703, within-0.5 20.0%.
_MAX_SAP_MAE: float = 1.371
# DELIBERATELY LOOSENED 1.371 -> 1.41 by the window-orientation fix (Khalim
# authorised, 2026-07-15) — the ONE sanctioned exception to "ratchets never
# loosen". PasHub lodged `orientation` as a raw string ("South East") where
# the solar-gains cascade only accepts the int octant 1..8, so EVERY window's
# solar gain was silently zeroed (100% of the cohort, ~1,647 windows). Coding
# it (`_pashub_orientation_int`) is an unambiguous correctness fix that moves
# within-0.5 20.0% -> 23.9% (41 -> 49; the campaign's largest within-0.5 move)
# and within-1 87 -> 98. MAE RISES 1.370 -> 1.405 ONLY because the zeroed
# gains were masking the known SAP-10.2-engine-vs-lodged-2012-RdSAP offset the
# module docstring already flags (bias -0.67 -> +1.04) — NOT an extraction
# regression. The correct oracle for this field is the Elmhurst 10.2 worksheet,
# not the hybrid `pre_sap` gauge; validate there before tightening further.
_MAX_SAP_MAE: float = 1.41
_KNOWN_GAP_REASON = (
"pashub `from_site_notes` mapper does not int-code a main-heating "