diff --git a/etl/eligibility/ha_15_32/ha_analysis_batch_3.py b/etl/eligibility/ha_15_32/ha_analysis_batch_3.py
index 1e2c5d92..d4c3f74f 100644
--- a/etl/eligibility/ha_15_32/ha_analysis_batch_3.py
+++ b/etl/eligibility/ha_15_32/ha_analysis_batch_3.py
@@ -2859,21 +2859,30 @@ def calculate_eco4_post_ciga(
             eligiblity_counts["ECO Eligibility"] == "failed ciga"
             ]["count"].sum()
 
+        eco4_no_ciga_needed_or_ciga_passed = eco4_no_ciga_needed + eco4_ciga_passed
+
         eco4_confirmed = (eco4_no_ciga_needed * ha_eco4_to_sale_rate) + (eco4_ciga_passed * ha_ciga_pass_to_sale_rate)
         eco4_confirmed = np.round(eco4_confirmed)
 
+        eco4_no_ciga_needed_cancellations = int(eco4_no_ciga_needed_or_ciga_passed - eco4_confirmed)
+
         if remaining_needing_ciga_check > 0:
             # We update the eco4 post ciga with the converted remaining
             eco4_ciga_expected_remaining_to_pass = np.round(remaining_needing_ciga_check * ha_ciga_conversion_rate)
+
             eco4_remaining_forecast = np.round(
                 eco4_ciga_expected_remaining_to_pass * ha_ciga_pass_to_sale_rate
             )
+            eco4_ciga_needed_cancellations = eco4_ciga_expected_remaining_to_pass - eco4_remaining_forecast
             eco4_estimated_ciga_failures = remaining_needing_ciga_check - eco4_ciga_expected_remaining_to_pass
             eco4_post_ciga = eco4_confirmed + eco4_remaining_forecast
         else:
             eco4_remaining_forecast = 0
             eco4_estimated_ciga_failures = 0
+            eco4_ciga_needed_cancellations = 0
             eco4_post_ciga = eco4_confirmed
+
+        eco4_expected_cancellations = eco4_no_ciga_needed_cancellations + eco4_ciga_needed_cancellations
     else:
         eco4_no_ciga_needed = eligiblity_counts[
             eligiblity_counts["ECO Eligibility"] == "eco4"
@@ -2881,14 +2890,18 @@ def calculate_eco4_post_ciga(
         eco4_confirmed_ciga_failures = 0
         # Multiply by sale conversion
         eco4_confirmed = np.round(eco4_no_ciga_needed * ha_eco4_to_sale_rate)
+        eco4_no_ciga_cancellations = int(eco4_no_ciga_needed - eco4_confirmed)
         eco4_ciga_expected_remaining_to_pass = np.round(remaining_needing_ciga_check * ha_ciga_conversion_rate)
         eco4_estimated_ciga_failures = remaining_needing_ciga_check - eco4_ciga_expected_remaining_to_pass
 
         eco4_remaining_forecast = np.round(
             eco4_ciga_expected_remaining_to_pass * ha_ciga_pass_to_sale_rate
         )
+        eco4_ciga_cancellations = int(eco4_ciga_expected_remaining_to_pass - eco4_remaining_forecast)
         eco4_post_ciga = eco4_confirmed + eco4_remaining_forecast
 
+        eco4_expected_cancellations = eco4_no_ciga_cancellations + eco4_ciga_cancellations
+
     eco4_post_ciga = int(eco4_post_ciga)
     eco4_remaining_forecast = int(eco4_remaining_forecast)
     eco4_confirmed = int(eco4_confirmed)
@@ -2912,6 +2925,9 @@ def calculate_eco4_post_ciga(
         ),
         "Confirmed CIGA failures - £": int(eco4_confirmed_ciga_failures * eco4_rate),
         "Estimated CIGA failures - £": int(eco4_estimated_ciga_failures * eco4_rate),
+        # Expected cencellations
+        "Expected cancellations - #": eco4_expected_cancellations,
+        "Expected cancellations - £": eco4_expected_cancellations * eco4_rate
     }
 
     return results
@@ -3322,6 +3338,28 @@ def forecast_remaining_sales(loader):
                 incomplete_gbis_sales.shape[0] * ha_gbis_sale_conversion * gbis_rate
             )
 
+        # Add in the variance:
+        # We should expect that the pre-ciga total is:
+        # 1) The number of post CIGA successes +
+        # 2) the number of CIGA failures +
+        # 3) The number of cancellations
+        variance_total = eco4_pre_ciga - (
+            eco4_post_ciga_total_results["ECO4 - post CIGA - #"] +
+            eco4_post_ciga_total_results['Estimated total - failed CIGA'] +
+            eco4_post_ciga_total_results["Expected cancellations - #"]
+        )
+        if variance_total != 0:
+            raise ValueError("Something went wrong in variance total")
+
+        variance_remaining = eco4_pre_ciga_remaining - (
+            eco4_post_ciga_remaining_results["ECO4 - post CIGA - #"] +
+            eco4_post_ciga_remaining_results['Estimated total - failed CIGA'] +
+            eco4_post_ciga_remaining_results["Expected cancellations - #"]
+        )
+
+        if variance_remaining != 0:
+            raise ValueError("Something went wrong in variance remaining")
+
         to_append = {
             ("", "", "", "HA Name"): ha_name,
             # ECO4 - original warmfront figures
@@ -3340,6 +3378,8 @@ def forecast_remaining_sales(loader):
             ("", "Warmfront post code list", "Total #", "ECO4 total (pre-ciga)"): eco4_pre_ciga,
             ("ECO4 pre-ciga", "", "Remaining - #", ""): eco4_pre_ciga_remaining,
             ("ECO4 pre-ciga", "", "Total - £", ""): eco4_pre_ciga_revenue,
+            ("ECO4 pre-ciga", "", "VARIANCE - TOTAL", ""): variance_total,
+            ("ECO4 pre-ciga", "", "VARIANCE - REMAINING", ""): variance_remaining,
             ("ECO4 pre-ciga", "", "Sold - £", ""): eco4_actually_sold,
             ("ECO4 pre-ciga", "", "Remaining - £", ""): eco4_pre_ciga_remaining_revenue,
             # ECO4 - asset list, post ciga, total
@@ -3382,6 +3422,13 @@ def forecast_remaining_sales(loader):
             ("ECO4 CIGA failures", "", "Estimated failures - £", ""): eco4_post_ciga_remaining_results[
                 "Estimated CIGA failures - £"
             ],
+            # Expected ECO4 cancellations
+            ("ECO4 Cancellations", "", "Expected cancellations - #", ""): eco4_post_ciga_remaining_results[
+                "Expected cancellations - #"
+            ],
+            ("ECO4 Cancellations", "", "Expected cancellations - £", ""): eco4_post_ciga_remaining_results[
+                "Expected cancellations - £"
+            ],
             # GBIS postcode list
             ("GBIS Postcode list", "Warmfront post code list", "Total - #", "GBIS total"): gbis_total,
             ("GBIS Postcode list", "Warmfront post code list", "Total - £", "GBIS total"): gbis_total_revenue,
@@ -3393,7 +3440,7 @@ def forecast_remaining_sales(loader):
         }
 
         # Make sure nothing is forgotten due to duplicate multi-index keys
-        if len(to_append) != 37:
+        if len(to_append) != 41:
             raise ValueError("Something went wrong")
 
         results.append(to_append)