diff --git a/applications/modelling_e2e/handler.py b/applications/modelling_e2e/handler.py
index 208b5ae7c..ea3708a06 100644
--- a/applications/modelling_e2e/handler.py
+++ b/applications/modelling_e2e/handler.py
@@ -607,11 +607,11 @@ def handler(
         )
         epc_repo = EpcPostgresRepository(read_session)
         # Lodged EPCs are read by UPRN (keyed by UPRN below); predicted EPCs stay
-        # keyed on property_id.
-        stored_lodged_epcs: dict[int, EpcPropertyData] = (
-            epc_repo.get_for_properties(list(set(uprns.values())))
-            if not refetch_epc
-            else {}
+        # keyed on property_id. Read whatever refetch_epc says — the flag decides
+        # whether the gov register is consulted for a *candidate*, never whether a
+        # stored assessment can win the ADR-0001 Recency Tie-Break (#1589).
+        stored_lodged_epcs: dict[int, EpcPropertyData] = epc_repo.get_for_properties(
+            list(set(uprns.values()))
         )
         stored_predicted_epcs: dict[int, EpcPropertyData] = (
             epc_repo.get_predicted_for_properties(property_ids)
@@ -645,8 +645,15 @@ def handler(
             stored_lodged = stored_lodged_epcs.get(uprn)
             lodged_epc_is_new = False
             if refetch_epc:
-                epc: Optional[EpcPropertyData] = epc_client.get_by_uprn(uprn)
-                lodged_epc_is_new = epc is not None
+                epc: Optional[EpcPropertyData] = None
+                epc, lodged_epc_is_new = _newer_lodged(
+                    stored_lodged, epc_client.get_by_uprn(uprn)
+                )
+                if epc is not None and not lodged_epc_is_new:
+                    logger.info(
+                        f"property={pid} stored lodged EPC is newer than the "
+                        f"fetched cert — keeping the stored assessment"
+                    )
             elif stored_lodged is not None:
                 logger.info(
                     f"property={pid} using stored lodged EPC (refetch_epc=False)"
diff --git a/tests/applications/modelling_e2e/test_handler.py b/tests/applications/modelling_e2e/test_handler.py
index 305e22f46..1a41a0bda 100644
--- a/tests/applications/modelling_e2e/test_handler.py
+++ b/tests/applications/modelling_e2e/test_handler.py
@@ -1933,10 +1933,13 @@ def test_repredict_epc_false_without_stored_predicted_epc_falls_back_to_live_pre
         stack.enter_context(
             patch("applications.modelling_e2e.handler.run_modelling", return_value=mock_plan)
         )
-        # No stored predicted EPC
-        stack.enter_context(
+        # Nothing stored: no predicted EPC, and no lodged EPC to win the
+        # tie-break against the register's None
+        mock_epc_repo = stack.enter_context(
             patch("applications.modelling_e2e.handler.EpcPostgresRepository")
-        ).return_value.get_predicted_for_properties.return_value = {}
+        ).return_value
+        mock_epc_repo.get_predicted_for_properties.return_value = {}
+        mock_epc_repo.get_for_properties.return_value = {}
         MockUoW = stack.enter_context(
             patch("applications.modelling_e2e.handler.PostgresUnitOfWork")
         )