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docs: handover post S0380.138..140 (off-peak tariff cascade + §4 cylinder storage loss)
Three-slice handover covering: - S0380.138: per-tariff Table 32 low-rate dispatch - S0380.139: _is_off_peak_meter canonical normalization - S0380.140: §4 (56)m cylinder storage loss (extractor + cascade) Ranks next-slice candidates (top: +2.5 SAP cluster across electric 3, oil 1, solid fuel 2 — likely shared Table 9 MIT bug). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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# Handover — post Slices S0380.138..140
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Branch: `feature/per-cert-mapper-validation`. **HEAD `068088bc`**.
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Predecessor: [`HANDOVER_POST_S0380_137.md`](HANDOVER_POST_S0380_137.md).
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## TL;DR
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Three slices landed on top of `3542186f` this session, all
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concentrated on the §10a fuel-cost + §4 cylinder-storage-loss
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cascades. Each slice surfaced 1-2 spec-citable bugs hidden behind
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silent default fallbacks; together they shifted ~24 corpus residuals
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substantially.
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| Slice | Commit | Scope |
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|---|---|---|
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| **S0380.138** | `a830e855` | New `_off_peak_low_rate_gbp_per_kwh(tariff)` helper routing every off-peak callsite (`_space_heating_fuel_cost_gbp_per_kwh`, `_hot_water_fuel_cost_gbp_per_kwh`, `_secondary_fuel_cost_gbp_per_kwh`, `_pv_dwelling_import_price_gbp_per_kwh`) through the per-tariff Table 32 low-rate (codes 31/33/35/40) instead of hardcoded `prices.e7_low_rate_p_per_kwh = 5.50`. Companion `_off_peak_low_rate_gbp_per_kwh_via_meter_heuristic` covers the Unknown-meter path. `PriceTable.e7_low_rate_p_per_kwh` field deleted (dead code). |
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| **S0380.139** | `c4db37db` | `_is_off_peak_meter` routed through canonical `tariff_from_meter_type` (the bare `"18 Hour"` lodging — all 41 corpus variants' surface form — is now recognised as off-peak; pre-slice only the long form `"off-peak 18 hour"` matched). Dead `_RDSAP_DEFINITELY_OFF_PEAK` frozenset deleted. |
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| **S0380.140** | `068088bc` | §4 (56)m cylinder storage loss cascade closed via two compounding fixes: (a) extractor parses §16 `"Cylinder thermostat (Already installed)"` recommendation line (previously only §15.1 "Cylinder Thermostat" label was checked, so `cylinder_thermostat=None` for every variant on property 001431); (b) `_separately_timed_dhw` now excludes electric immersion per SAP 10.2 Table 2b note b (which restricts the ×0.9 multiplier to "boiler systems, warm air systems and heat pump systems"). Combined, cascade TF closes from 0.702 → 0.60 (matching worksheet); HW kWh closes to ±1e-3 of worksheet (2384.116 vs 2384.12). |
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Extended handover suite at HEAD: **883 pass, 0 fail.**
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## Current residual state at HEAD `068088bc`
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### Cascade-OK tier (25 variants on pin grid)
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| Variant | ΔSAP_c | Δcost | ΔPE |
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|---|---:|---:|---:|
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| ashp | +0.24 | -£5.57 | -12 |
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| electric 1 | -0.06 | +£1.32 | +94 |
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| electric 2 | +0.47 | -£10.92 | +101 |
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| **electric 3** | **+2.55** | **-£58.65** | **-1122** |
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| electric 5 | +0.07 | -£1.72 | -161 |
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| **electric 6** | **+1.33** | **-£30.60** | **-563** |
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| **electric 7** | **+1.29** | **-£29.73** | **-498** |
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| electric 8 | -0.26 | +£5.92 | +126 |
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| electric 9 | -0.12 | +£2.72 | +91 |
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| gshp | +1.15 | -£26.48 | -455 |
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| **oil 1** | **+2.66** | **-£61.24** | **-1050** |
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| oil pcdb 1/2 | +0.42 | -£9.77 | -84 |
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| oil pcdb 3 | +1.16 | -£26.72 | -271 |
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| **pcdb 1** | **+6.95** | **-£157.61** | **-3135** |
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| **solid fuel 2** | **+2.55** | **-£60.79** | **-1211** |
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| **solid fuel 3** | **+1.24** | **-£28.31** | **-935** |
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| solid fuel 4-11 (×8) | -0.29..+0.10 | small | ±100 |
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### Blocked tier (16 variants)
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Unchanged from previous handover — community heating × 5, electric
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storage 11/12/13/14, no system, oil 2-6, pcdb 3.
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## Next-slice candidates ranked by leverage
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### 1. **+2.5 SAP cluster (electric 3, oil 1, solid fuel 2)** — open
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These three variants share `ΔSAP_c ≈ +2.55` with `Δcost ≈ −£60`.
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Different SAP codes (401 storage, oil Table 4b, anthracite 158) but
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remarkably consistent residual magnitude — suggests one shared
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cascade gap.
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**Diagnosis pending.** Probe results so far:
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- electric 3 SH+Sec demand: cascade 10046 kWh vs worksheet 11088 kWh
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(cascade under by 1042 kWh = ~10%)
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- Not Table 11 fraction (cascade rate = worksheet rate = 7.41 p/kWh
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after S0380.138, so SH/Sec swap is cost-neutral)
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- Possibly Table 9 MIT calc — these are all "low-R" systems (R=0.00
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for 401, R=0.50 for 158, R=0.40-0.60 for oil Table 4b). Cascade
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may under-compute MIT for low-R systems → lower demand.
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**Suggested slice plan:**
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1. Probe `space_heating_kwh_per_yr` derivation for code 401 vs
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worksheet (62)/(63) lines
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2. Check Table 9b MIT formula application — does cascade use R
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correctly in `alpha = 1 - 0.4 × R` or similar?
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3. If MIT is the root, fix the formula
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4. Re-pin all 3 cluster variants + side effects
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### 2. **pcdb 1 PE -3135 (single variant, biggest residual)** — open
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Diagnosed during this session: cascade water_efficiency for PCDB
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boiler 716 (Potterton KOA 90/26) uses summer efficiency 53% → HW kWh
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4269. Worksheet effective HW efficiency ≈ 34% → HW kWh 7064.
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The diff is +2794 kWh HW × 5.44 p/kWh = +£152 cost gap.
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**Likely root**: PCDB Appendix D §D2.1 Equation D1 monthly cascade
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isn't being invoked for this record. The record has both winter (65%)
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and summer (53%) but the cascade may default to summer scalar. The
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spec wants monthly weighted blend via Eq D1.
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**Suggested slice plan:**
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1. Check why Eq D1 monthly cascade isn't firing for PCDB 716
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2. Spec citation: SAP 10.2 Appendix D §D2.1
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3. Fix the dispatch + re-pin pcdb 1
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### 3. **solid fuel 2/3 PE -935..-1211** — open
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Both anthracite. Same fuel + R as variants that closed (solid fuel
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4-11 all ±170 PE). Distinct cause from #1 above.
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Different `main_heating_efficiency` per cert lodgement? Different
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`main_heating_control`? Per-variant probe required.
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### 4. **Lighting/pumps rate 13.19 vs 13.67 on 18-hour** — uniform but tiny
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Worksheet bills lighting/pumps at 18-hour HIGH rate (Table 32 code 38 =
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13.67 p/kWh). Cascade falls back to standard 13.19 because Table 12a
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Grid 2 has no EIGHTEEN_HOUR row.
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Fix: add `(OtherUse.ALL_OTHER_USES, Tariff.EIGHTEEN_HOUR): 1.0` to
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`_OTHER_USE_HIGH_RATE_FRACTION`. Empirical citation (no spec PDF
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verification).
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Impact: ~+£2 cost / -0.086 SAP per variant × 25 variants = uniform
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small shift. Doesn't strongly close any single variant but cleans up
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cohort-wide.
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### 5. **Pumps overcount for electric storage** — wrong direction
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Cascade applies 130 kWh pumps default for any non-gas/non-HP main.
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Worksheet has 0 pumps for electric storage / underfloor / direct-
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acting (no wet pump). But the cascade is already UNDER-counting cost
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for these variants, so removing pumps would make residuals MORE
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negative. Defer until SH+Sec demand cluster (#1) closes.
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### 6. **Community heating unblocking (5 variants)** — sizeable
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Extend extractor to capture §14.1 Community Heating block (heat-network
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codes 41-58). Each cert maps to a Table 32 heat-network code via the
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lodged heat source type.
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### 7. **Electric storage unblocking (variants 11-14)** — small
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Extend `_ELMHURST_MAIN_HEATING_EES_TO_FUEL_CODE` for EES codes WEA,
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REA, OEA.
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## Standard slice workflow
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1. Read spec page + identify rule
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2. Probe one cluster variant; verify diagnosis via monkey-patch
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3. Write failing AAA test (literal `# Arrange / # Act / # Assert`)
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4. Implement helper / dispatch entry / mapper extension
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5. Re-pin affected variants
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6. Run extended handover suite (command in previous handover)
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7. Pyright net-zero check (`git stash` → pyright → `git stash pop` →
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pyright)
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8. Commit with spec citation +
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`Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>`
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9. Update `project-heating-systems-corpus` + `MEMORY.md` index
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## Memories to load (in order)
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```
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project-heating-systems-corpus # HEAD 068088bc
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feedback-sap-10-2-only-never-10-3 # CRITICAL — never reference SAP 10.3
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feedback-worksheet-not-api-reference
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feedback-spec-citation-in-commits
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feedback-verify-handover-claims
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feedback-zero-error-strict
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feedback-commit-per-slice
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feedback-aaa-test-convention
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feedback-e2e-validation-philosophy
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feedback-abs-diff-over-pytest-approx
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feedback-spec-floor-skepticism
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feedback-golden-residuals-near-zero
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feedback-one-e-minus-4-across-the-board
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reference-unmapped-sap-code
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reference-unmapped-api-code
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project-oil-price-spec-divergence
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```
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## What NOT to do
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- **Don't reference SAP 10.3** — track 10.2 deliberately
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- **Don't widen pin tolerances** to make pins pass — re-pin smaller or
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find the spec gap
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- **Don't re-investigate Slices .91..140** — all settled
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- **Don't add new helpers to `domain/sap10_ml/`** — on deprecation path
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- **Don't accept "spec-precision floor" framing** without spec-citation
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verification (the +2.5 SAP cluster is NOT a precision floor; it's a
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diagnosable shared cascade gap)
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## Spec source quick-reference
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All under `domain/sap10_calculator/docs/specs/`:
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- **SAP 10.2 full spec**: `sap-10-2-full-specification-2025-03-14.pdf`
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- **§4** (p.135-137) — water heating worksheet (45..65), Tables 2/2a/2b
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- **§9** (p.155+) — MIT calc, Tables 9/9a/9b
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- **Table 4a/4b/4d** — heating systems + emitter responsiveness
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- **Table 4f** (p.174) — pumps + fans
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- **Table 11** — secondary heating fraction by category
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- **Table 12** (p.191) — SAP rating fuel prices
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- **Table 12a** (p.191) — high/low-rate fraction by system × tariff
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- **RdSAP 10 spec**: `RdSAP 10 Specification 10-06-2025.pdf`
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- **§19 Table 32** (p.95) — RdSAP10 fuel prices / CO2 / PE
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## Good luck.
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