PasHub SAP accuracy: pin 13 Walsden to its re-survey SAP 64, not the colliding 68 🟩

13 Walsden (deal 499630239947, uprn 77179782) has TWO distinct gov-EPC
assessments: the PAS Hub site-note re-survey we parse (26 May 2026,
accredited SAP 64, backed by rd_sap_site_note files) and a SEPARATE
later lodged cert (24 Jun 2026, SAP 68, registered, no site-note). The
portfolio-838 baseline latched onto the 24-Jun SAP-68 cert; our engine
models the survey it was given and reproduces its own accredited 64
(64.19). 6 of 7 Walsden Street homes have pbp oracle == PAS Hub survey
SAP exactly — #13 is the lone collision.

A durable regression pin (asserts our SAP within 0.5 of a literal 64,
not the manifest value the fixture-builder can revert to a colliding DB
row) documents the provenance so nobody "corrects" the target to 68.
13 Walsden is a known re-survey-diverges outlier, not an engine
under-rate; confirmed against pashub (Khalim, 2026-07-15e).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar 2026-07-15 22:14:58 +00:00
parent 4c0ccad882
commit d3f36d78ac

View file

@ -321,3 +321,26 @@ def test_pashub_sap_accuracy_aggregate(capsys: pytest.CaptureFixture[str]) -> No
assert sap_mae <= _MAX_SAP_MAE, (
f"SAP MAE {sap_mae:.3f} exceeded ceiling {_MAX_SAP_MAE}"
)
@pytest.mark.skipif(not _FIXTURES, reason="no pashub_accuracy fixtures/manifest")
def test_walsden_pins_to_pashub_resurvey_sap_64() -> None:
"""13 Walsden Street (deal 499630239947) has TWO distinct gov-EPC assessments
for the same UPRN: the PAS Hub site-note re-survey we parse (inspected
26 May 2026, accredited SAP **64**, band D, backed by `rd_sap_site_note`
files) and a SEPARATE later lodged cert (24 Jun 2026, SAP 68, registered, no
site-note). The portfolio-838 baseline latched onto the 24-Jun SAP-68 cert,
but our engine models the survey it was GIVEN and reproduces that survey's own
accredited 64 (~64.19). Confirmed against pashub (Khalim) and corroborated by
the manifest `pre_sap` D64 + hubspot D64; see the 2026-07-15e provenance
investigation in the campaign memory. The manifest is correctly 64, but the
fixture-builder can revert manifest values to a colliding DB row so this pins
64 explicitly. Do NOT "correct" this target to 68: that is a different
assessment with no site-note backing, and 13 Walsden is a known
re-survey-diverges outlier, not an engine under-rate."""
outcome = _evaluate("499630239947")
assert outcome.sap_continuous is not None
assert abs(outcome.sap_continuous - 64) < 0.5, (
f"13 Walsden SAP {outcome.sap_continuous:.2f} diverged from the PAS Hub "
"re-survey's own accredited 64 (NOT the colliding 24-Jun cert's 68)"
)