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docs: session-8c handover — Table 4g default SFP for index-less MEV (within-0.5 trade-off)

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Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Khalim Conn-Kowlessar 2026-06-09 09:01:37 +00:00
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@ -13,16 +13,29 @@ deproven approaches + the meter/shower data-fidelity findings), and the earlier
`energy_rating_current`. Headline gauge:
`PYTHONPATH=/workspaces/model python scripts/eval_api_sap_accuracy.py`.
| metric | session-6 (`a7761ea8`) | session-7 (`3e05c95e`) | session-8 (`71b378b9`) | **session-8b (`e7af6fda`)** |
| metric | session-7 (`3e05c95e`) | session-8 (`71b378b9`) | session-8b (`e7af6fda`) | **session-8c (`e6dda705`)** |
|--------|------------------|------------------|------------------|------------------|
| **% \|err\| < 0.5** | 53.14% | 54.24% | 55.01% | **55.12%** |
| % \|err\| < 1.0 | 67.99% | 69.64% | 70.08% | **70.08%** |
| % \|err\| < 2.0 | 81.85% | 83.50% | ~83.6% | **~83.6%** |
| mean \|err\| | 1.312 | 1.248 | 1.233 | **1.232** |
| median \|err\| | 0.467 | 0.457 | 0.448 | **0.446** |
| **% \|err\| < 0.5** | 54.24% | 55.01% | 55.12% | **54.90%** ⚠ |
| % \|err\| < 1.0 | 69.64% | 70.08% | 70.08% | **70.19%** |
| % \|err\| < 2.0 | 83.50% | ~83.6% | ~83.6% | **84.60%** |
| mean \|err\| | 1.248 | 1.233 | 1.232 | **1.224** |
| median \|err\| | 0.457 | 0.448 | 0.446 | **0.448** |
| computed / raises | 909 / 0 | 909 / 0 | 909 / 0 | **909 / 0** |
| unsupported_schema | 100 (deferred) | 100 (deferred) | 100 (deferred) | 100 (deferred) |
### SESSION-8c — Table 4g default SFP for index-less MEV (HEADLINE TRADE-OFF), `e6dda705`
The 11 index-less MEV certs (mostly GAS houses, `mechanical_ventilation=2`, no PCDB
index) billed ZERO fan electricity → +2.2 over-rate (signed +1.23, median +2.19).
SAP 10.2 §2.6.3 / Table 4g note 1 (p.176): default SFP **0.8 W/(l/s)** used directly
as SFPav in (230a). `_mev_decentralised_kwh_per_yr_from_cert` now falls back to it
for a mechanical-EXTRACT system when no Table 322 record resolves. Cohort closed
+1.23 → +0.18 signed. **TRADE-OFF: within-0.5 55.12% → 54.90% (−2)** — the fan energy
is only ~half each cert's over-rate, so the cohort lands at ~+1.0 (still outside 0.5)
while 2 borderline offsetting-error certs cross out; within-1.0/within-2.0/mean|err|
all improve. Spec-correct, applied uniformly per the determinism principle. **NEXT:
the unmasked ~+1.0 residual on gas-house MEV — the OTHER half (not electric-flat
fabric, since these are gas houses).** Goldens green, pyright net-zero.
### SESSION-8b — MEV fan electricity (PCDB index plumbed), `e7af6fda`
Follow-up to 8: the +0.9 residual on MEV after the §2 heat-loss fix was the FAN
electricity (§5 Table 4f (230a) `SFPav × 1.22 × V`, PCDB Tables 322/329).