diff --git a/domain/sap10_calculator/docs/HANDOVER_POST_S0380_140.md b/domain/sap10_calculator/docs/HANDOVER_POST_S0380_140.md index 865e2b25..1d881bca 100644 --- a/domain/sap10_calculator/docs/HANDOVER_POST_S0380_140.md +++ b/domain/sap10_calculator/docs/HANDOVER_POST_S0380_140.md @@ -50,29 +50,49 @@ storage 11/12/13/14, no system, oil 2-6, pcdb 3. ## Next-slice candidates ranked by leverage -### 1. **+2.5 SAP cluster (electric 3, oil 1, solid fuel 2)** — open +### 1. **+2.5 SAP cluster (electric 3, oil 1, solid fuel 2)** — open, HETEROGENEOUS -These three variants share `ΔSAP_c ≈ +2.55` with `Δcost ≈ −£60`. -Different SAP codes (401 storage, oil Table 4b, anthracite 158) but -remarkably consistent residual magnitude — suggests one shared -cascade gap. +These three variants share `ΔSAP_c ≈ +2.55` with `Δcost ≈ −£60`, but +**probing shows the residuals trace to DIFFERENT causes — not a +single shared cascade gap**. Slice attempted in this thread, abandoned +after diagnosis showed each variant needs a different fix: -**Diagnosis pending.** Probe results so far: -- electric 3 SH+Sec demand: cascade 10046 kWh vs worksheet 11088 kWh - (cascade under by 1042 kWh = ~10%) -- Not Table 11 fraction (cascade rate = worksheet rate = 7.41 p/kWh - after S0380.138, so SH/Sec swap is cost-neutral) -- Possibly Table 9 MIT calc — these are all "low-R" systems (R=0.00 - for 401, R=0.50 for 158, R=0.40-0.60 for oil Table 4b). Cascade - may under-compute MIT for low-R systems → lower demand. +| variant | SAP code | SH+Sec demand gap | HW kWh gap | Driver | +|---|---|---:|---:|---| +| electric 3 | 401 | cascade UNDER by 1005 kWh | exact | §9 MIT for storage heaters | +| oil 1 | 127 | cascade OVER by 104 kWh (small) | cascade UNDER by 854 kWh | HW efficiency 86% vs worksheet 65% | +| solid fuel 2 | 158 | cascade OVER by 337 kWh | unclear (different lodging) | TBD | -**Suggested slice plan:** -1. Probe `space_heating_kwh_per_yr` derivation for code 401 vs - worksheet (62)/(63) lines -2. Check Table 9b MIT formula application — does cascade use R - correctly in `alpha = 1 - 0.4 × R` or similar? -3. If MIT is the root, fix the formula -4. Re-pin all 3 cluster variants + side effects +**Combined-R hypothesis tested and rejected.** SAP 10.2 §9b defines +`effective_R = (1−sec_frac) × R_main + sec_frac × R_sec`, which the +cascade is NOT applying (`mean_internal_temperature_section_from_cert` +at L2543 and main orchestrator at L4490 both call +`mean_internal_temperature_monthly` without passing +`secondary_fraction`/`secondary_responsiveness`). A monkey-patch to +inject these REGRESSES electric 3 (+2.55 → +3.17) because raising +effective_R LOWERS cascade demand — the wrong direction. The cascade +is "compensating by not using combined R" — fixing this in isolation +will require fixing the demand undercount simultaneously. + +**Per-variant fix plans:** +- **electric 3**: cascade total useful demand (10046 kWh) is ~10% + below worksheet (11088 kWh). Not driven by R alone — even with + combined-R fix it gets worse. Likely the cascade's Table 9 heating- + hours-per-day for ctrl=3 storage heaters differs from worksheet + (worksheet may assume 24-hr "always on" for off-peak storage; cascade + uses the standard ctrl=3 pattern). +- **oil 1**: cascade water_efficiency for Table 4b oil boiler (code + 127, eff=84%) produces HW kWh 2785; worksheet 3639. Worksheet + effective HW eff ≈ 65% (suggests summer/winter blend or different + Appendix D path). Per SAP 10.2 Appendix D §D2.1 — the cascade may + not apply the right summer-eff override for non-PCDB oil boilers. +- **solid fuel 2**: anthracite (eff=65%). Cascade HW is 3599 kWh; + worksheet HW likely lodged in a different line ref (the probe regex + returned 0). Re-probe needed. + +**Recommended approach**: take these as 3 separate per-variant slices +in a fresh session. Each is its own diagnosis. The "+2.5" magnitude +similarity is coincidence, not signal. ### 2. **pcdb 1 PE -3135 (single variant, biggest residual)** — open