Per pair, replay the age->fuel->TFA conditioning ladder over the plain
arm's cohort to record ENGAGED vs RELAXED per filter, and record whether
each historic stable attribute still agrees with the newly lodged cert
(the direct staleness measurement). Emitted as JSONL (--telemetry) and
aggregated into two diagnosis tables appended to the report.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Classification hit-rates for every compare_prediction component, all five
numeric residuals, and the secondary calculator-floored SAP residual
(calc(predicted) − lodged), plain vs conditioned side by side — the same
metric shape as the prediction-corpus gate (ADR-0030). Pair-check now
precedes the cohort fetch so a national postcode sweep only pays the
expensive search-by-postcode for shards that actually hold a pair.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Finds pre-2012 (S3 backup) x SAP-10.2 (new API) cert pairs per postcode,
predicts each from its leave-one-out cohort with and without ADR-0054
conditioning, and reports compare_prediction hit rates side by side.
Evidence for the stable-attribute whitelist, not a CI gate.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
PropertyAudit gained three required cylinder fields; the pre-existing
divergence/goal-shortfall tests construct it via _make_audit, which
wasn't updated.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The neighbour SAP-divergence cohort was (postcode, property_type, built_form),
which mixed electric- and gas-heated dwellings. Electricity scores materially
lower in SAP than mains gas for identical fabric, so a mixed-fuel postcode
produced cross-fuel false outliers — an electric dwelling flagged only for being
electric among gas neighbours.
Add the main-heating fuel class to the cohort key (electricity variants — 29/30
+ off-peak 31-40 — collapse to one class; every other code is its own bucket).
Now every flagged divergence is a same-fuel comparison worth investigating. On
portfolio 814 this refined 20 raw divergences to 17 same-fuel ones while keeping
the genuine within-fuel outliers (e.g. the all-electric WC2B 4AW flats at SAP
26/38 vs a cohort median of 67).
Reaches the fuel via epc_main_heating_detail through the indexed property_id —
still never touches the recommendation table. Surfaced by the portfolio-814
recommendation audit (Work item B, #1388).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
One-time script (dry-run default, --apply in a transaction, idempotent) reusing the
live glazing_mix_guard so the backfill and classifier cannot drift. Maps every
genuine percentage-mix override (neither type >= 90%) off a flattened single type
onto MIXED (no overlay -> the cert's per-window glazing is kept). property_overrides
TEXT updated now; the glazing pgEnum cache write for 'Mixed glazing' is deferred
until the FE adds the member. Dry-run against the audited DB reports 647 rows.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
A focused sibling to audit-ara-portfolio: that skill audits baselines/plans/SAP;
this one audits the *recommendations themselves* — why a measure was or wasn't
offered. Motivated by the portfolio-814 review (Khalim's HHRSH-on-community-
heating, missing-HHRSH, missing-secondary-heating-removal, and a neighbour split).
Adds:
- .claude/skills/find-weird-recommendations/SKILL.md — scan -> neighbour scan ->
live re-model deep-dive -> root-cause -> codify, with a seeded known-bug
catalogue and the query-safety rules inherited from audit-ara-portfolio.
- scripts/audit/anomalies.py: new `plan-stops-short-of-goal` HIGH check — the
default plan ends below the goal band on an unlimited-budget scenario (the
deterministic worklist for "why didn't this get recommended X"). Adds
scenario_budget to the bundle/query so budget-capped scenarios are excluded.
- scripts/audit/neighbour_divergence.py: groups a portfolio by (postcode,
property_type, built_form) and flags effective-SAP outliers vs the cohort
median. Never touches the 26m-row recommendation table, so it is safe
portfolio-wide.
- Tests for both (12 passing).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
One-time script (dry-run default, --apply in a transaction, idempotent) mapping a
flat roof's stated depth (flat: Nmm) onto the nearest Table 16 rung member so the
overlay scores it by thickness, not the age-band default. Updates property_overrides
(TEXT) immediately; the roof_type pgEnum cache writes are deferred until the FE adds
the FLAT_*MM members. Dry-run against the audited DB reports 102 rows, deferring
Flat 50/100/150 mm.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
One-time script (dry-run default, --apply in a transaction, idempotent) that maps
every party-ceiling override (another/same dwelling or premises above) currently
stored as an external roof value onto the party-ceiling member, reusing the live
roof_party_ceiling_guard so the backfill and the classifier cannot drift. Updates
property_overrides (TEXT, the modelling read path) and the roof classifier cache;
dry-run against the audited DB reports 106 rows. No FE migration — the party-
ceiling values already exist in the roof pgEnum.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
One-time script (dry-run default, --apply in a transaction, idempotent) that
NULLs the four lodged_* columns on every predicted-source baseline row — a
predicted EPC exists and no lodged one does — leaving Effective, the bill block,
and rebaseline_reason intact. Dry-run against the audited DB reports 12,236 rows.
Must run after the FE-owned Drizzle ALTER ... DROP NOT NULL lands.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Deterministic catalogue remap (no LLM) that re-resolves the stored archetype for
the canonical RdSAP heating descriptions the under-populated taxonomy
mis-classified. Dry-run by default; --apply writes inside a transaction;
idempotent. Updates property_overrides.override_value (TEXT — what the modelling
reads, the actual band-G fix: 3,028 rows incl. 2,210 community boilers + 770
panel/convector room heaters). Cache (the Drizzle-owned main_heating_system
pgEnum) updates are deferred per-value until the FE-repo enum migration adds the
new archetypes — surfaced explicitly by the script.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
