- run_modelling_e2e --from-db re-models from already-persisted inputs (reads
each Property's Effective EPC + planning protections + solar from the DB) and
skips every live fetcher — zero gov-API calls. With --persist it re-writes the
Plan and, for lodged-EPC Properties, the Baseline. Self-contained loop; the
live-fetch path is untouched. Makes local re-runs instant and avoids tripping
the gov API's per-IP rate limit (6000 req / 5 min) during iteration.
- EpcClientService.REQUEST_TIMEOUT 10s -> 30s: a cold per-UPRN search can exceed
10s and the old timeout turned it into a timeout-then-retry; 30s rides it out.
Note: an open perf question remains — modelling is fast in isolation (<0.5s/
property) but a long-lived --persist run shows ~1 min/property; suspected in the
persist path (plan.save / baseline) or connection handling, NOT the API. Left
mid-diagnosis for handover.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Closes the follow-up from 22fe4f41. RdSAP 10 §12's third Unknown-meter
exception bullet — "main heating is ground source or water source heat pump" —
was unimplemented. Add `_GROUND_OR_WATER_SOURCE_HEAT_PUMP_CODES` (Table 4a,
SAP 10.2 PDF p.176-177: ground 211/215/221/225 + warm-air 521/525; water
213/216/223/226 + warm-air 523/526) to the Unknown-meter off-peak triggers;
once dual, Rules 1-4 (Rule 3) resolve it to 10-hour.
AIR-source heat pumps (214/217/224/227, 524/527) are deliberately EXCLUDED —
the spec names only ground/water source. Verified the only Unknown-meter heat
pumps in the corpus are "3/10 Bedford House" (main 214 = AIR source), which
correctly KEEP STANDARD. 0 corpus certs carry a GSHP/WSHP on an Unknown meter,
so this is a spec-completeness forward guard (gauge unchanged 72.5% / 0.789),
same family as the Scotland-J wall / rafters-M roof 0-impact spec fixes.
Coverage gap noted in-code: a database-index heat pump without a 211/213-style
SAP code can't have its source type read from the code alone (rare).
Spec-pinned (test_unknown_meter_ground_or_water_source_heat_pump_triggers_off_
peak). Gates green: corpus 72.5%/0.789, batch worksheet 0 raised/0 diverge,
suite 2989 passed (2 known pre-existing fails). pyright not installed locally.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
MAE improved 0.793 -> 0.789 via the Unknown-meter + dual-electric-immersion
off-peak trigger (commit 22fe4f41). Ratchet the ceiling so the gain can't
silently regress. within-0.5 unchanged (72.5%).
pyright not installed in this container — strict type gate not run locally.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Supersedes the previous "verified non-fix" doc (3548f1f3): the spec DOES make
this a fix — Khalim was right that the Unknown-meter branch is driven by the
heating/water system, not a blanket STANDARD.
RdSAP 10 §12 (PDF p.62): "If the electricity meter is unknown, treat as single
meter EXCEPT where main heating OR WATER HEATING are intended to run off an
off-peak tariff (per systems listed in the text box above) ... If that results
in a dual meter, assign tariff per rules 1 to 4." The text-box off-peak systems
include DUAL ELECTRIC IMMERSION. Our `rdsap_tariff_for_cert` only triggered the
Unknown→off-peak exception on a storage/CPSU MAIN — it ignored the
dual-electric-immersion WATER-heating trigger, so an Unknown-meter dwelling
with a non-storage main (e.g. room heaters) + dual immersion was billed
STANDARD (13.19p flat) when it should be dual → Rules 1-4 on the main.
Fix: thread `water_is_off_peak_dual_immersion` (whc 903 + immersion lodged dual
via `_immersion_is_single is False`) into the Unknown-meter branch; when any
text-box trigger is present, resolve via the same Rules 1-4 dispatch (room
heaters → Rule 3 → 10-hour). Single-immersion / instantaneous (whc 909) certs
correctly stay STANDARD (no text-box system).
Worksheet-validated on "simulated case 48" (main 691 + Unknown meter + 903 dual
immersion): Elmhurst 10-Hour Off Peak, SAP 57; ours 45 → 55 (7-hour gives 45,
confirming 10-hour). Flips exactly ONE corpus cert — Apartment 241 (the genuine
-5.38 under-rater, main 691 + dual immersion) -5.38 → -1.05; every other
Unknown+dual-immersion cert already has a storage main (Rule 2). Corpus
within-0.5 holds 72.5%, MAE 0.793 → 0.789 (improved). CO2/PE unchanged.
GSHP/WSHP-main trigger (the other §12 Unknown exception bullet) is a separate
follow-up. Gates green: corpus 72.5%/0.789, batch worksheet 0 raised/0 diverge,
000565 e2e 11/11, suite 2987 passed (2 known pre-existing fails). pyright not
installed in this container — strict type gate not run locally.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Khalim's hand-built "simulated case 48" Elmhurst worksheet (main 691 room
heaters + Unknown meter + 903 dual electric immersion + cylinder) proves
Elmhurst resolves an Unknown meter + Rule-3 room-heater main to 10-Hour Off
Peak — Elmhurst SAP 57; ours (STANDARD) 45; routing Unknown+Rule3 to off-peak
(10h) gives 55, 7h gives 45 (so Elmhurst uses 10-hour, RdSAP 10 §12 Rule 3,
PDF p.62). So the prior "Rule 3 is not off-peak evidence" comment was wrong
about Elmhurst's behaviour.
But adopting it REGRESSES the lodged-register corpus 72.5%->71.8% / MAE
0.793->0.827: of 11 Unknown+Rule-3 corpus certs only Apartment 241 improves
(-5.38->-1.05); the other 10 overshoot +2.7..+9.1 (Flat 2 +9.11). The
register's meter_type=3 certs were lodged with STANDARD-tariff costing — the
gov-API "Unknown" is lossy and does not mean off-peak. North star is
reproducing the lodged register, not Elmhurst's deliberate-Unknown worksheet,
so KEEP STANDARD (same "Elmhurst != noisy register" family as
roof-windows/shutters).
Comment-only; no behaviour change (corpus gauge unchanged 72.5% / 0.793).
pyright not installed in this container — strict type gate not run locally.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
profile_corpus_error.py: print median signed error alongside the mean in each
feature bucket. The mean is dragged by fat-tail register anomalies (e.g. electric
room heaters mean -1.09 but median -0.01) — median is the outlier-resistant lens
for finding TRUE systematic slices, so hunt by |median|, not |signed|.
heat_transmission.py: document why permanent-shutter R is deliberately NOT applied
(Elmhurst uses R=0.04 curtains on every window incl. insulated shutters, proven on
case 46; API-path trial worsens MAE). Comment-only.
pyright not installed locally — strict type gate not run.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Two second-main fuel errors mis-cost a dual-main dwelling whose two main systems
burn different fuels (SAP 10.2 §10a worksheet (213) bills main 2 at its own fuel):
1. Off-peak/legacy scalar cost path (calculator.py + cert_to_inputs.py): main 2's
kWh was priced at main 1's `space_heating_fuel_cost_gbp_per_kwh` scalar. Split
main 1 vs main 2 and price main 2 at its OWN rate via the new
`_main_2_space_heating_fuel_cost_gbp_per_kwh` (+ CalculatorInputs field).
Scoped to a NON-electric second main (wood/oil/coal) — an electric second
main keeps main 1's scalar (its off-peak Table 12a split is the deferred §10a
slice; per-system splitting it regresses the off-peak electric cohort, certs
13 Parkers Hill / 34 Dunley Road). 0 corpus impact (no corpus cert has a
non-electric second main on an off-peak meter).
2. Elmhurst Summary mapper (mapper.py): when §14.1 omits the Fuel Type cell, a
fuel-fired second main (room-heater SAP code) inherited main 1's fuel. Derive
it from the SAP code's Table 4a category (solid 631-636 -> house coal, gas ->
mains gas, liquid -> oil) before the main-1 inherit, mirroring
`_elmhurst_secondary_fuel_from_sap_code` (same modal sub-fuel caveat). Boiler
codes (<601) still inherit main 1 (case 6 oil rads+UFH).
simulated case 47 (electric room heaters + solid room heaters 633): our SAP
37.81 -> 55.09 vs Elmhurst current 57 (residual is the wood-vs-coal sub-fuel the
Summary export does not carry). Corpus unchanged 72.5% / MAE 0.793; batch 0
raised / 0 diverge; 000565 e2e green. (mapper.py also carries an earlier,
behaviour-free roof-window doc comment.) Spec-cited unit pins added (AAA).
pyright not installed locally — strict type gate not run.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
`table_32.unit_price_p_per_kwh` silently returned the mains-gas default
(3.48 p/kWh) for any fuel code it could not resolve to a Table 32 price or a
translatable gov-API enum. An unhandled fuel billed at the gas rate mis-costs
the dwelling (same failure mode as the dual-main wood-vs-electric over-cost).
Raise `UnpricedFuelCode` (new, mirrors MissingMainFuelType / UnmappedSapCode)
so the gap surfaces at the price boundary. `None` (no fuel lodged) still
defaults — callers resolve "no system" upstream.
0 corpus impact: all 1000 certs compute (every lodged fuel resolves), so this
is a forward guard against future/unmapped fuels. Unit pin added; existing
None-default test docstring tightened. pyright not installed locally — strict
type gate not run.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Main heating system 2's space-heating fuel cost (worksheet (213)) was billed
at main system 1's Table 32 unit price (`main_2_high_rate_gbp_per_kwh` reused
`main_1_high_rate_gbp_per_kwh`). For a dual-FUEL pair this grossly mis-costs the
second main: cert 10032957680 "Copse Cottage" (main 1 electric room heaters
fuel 30, main 2 wood logs fuel 6) charged its 9481 kWh of wood at 13.19 p/kWh
instead of 4.23 p/kWh — +£850/yr → SAP 21.75 vs lodged 45.
Route main 2 through its own fuel code (`_main_fuel_code(details[1])`), mirroring
the existing secondary-fuel handling. Copse Cottage 21.75 -> 45.94. Corpus
within-0.5 holds 72.5%, SAP MAE 0.815 -> 0.793 (ratcheted ceiling 0.82 -> 0.80);
CO2/PE unchanged. Same-fuel dual mains (gas+gas) unaffected. Off-peak-tariff
dual-fuel mains still defer to the legacy scalar path (separate slice).
Spec-cited unit pin added (AAA). pyright not installed locally — strict type
gate not run.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Make run_modelling_e2e the single script that does everything for a portfolio,
so the 291-property run needs one invocation with per-property recovery (no
all-or-nothing chunking):
- On --persist, a lodged-EPC Property now also gets its Baseline Performance
row written via PropertyBaselineOrchestrator (per Property, so one bad cert
does not abort the batch). Predicted (EPC-less) Properties have no lodged
figures, so they get a Plan but no baseline row.
- The run CSV gains api_sap (register) vs baseline_sap (calculator) + sap_delta,
so calculator-vs-API divergence is reviewable per property.
Fill the off-catalogue overlay for the measures the live material catalogue
cannot price, so they stop crashing the run:
- double_glazing (£550/window) and secondary_glazing (£400/window): priced
per window (the generator multiplies by single-glazed window count, matching
the legacy window_glazing). Grounded in 2025/26 UK installed costs; per-window
is the right unit for windows (fixed per-unit install dominates) — per-m2 fits
walls/floors, not glazing.
- gas_boiler_upgrade / system_tune_up / system_tune_up_zoned: these are priced
off the heating rate sheet (Products()), with get() reading the catalogue only
for an id — so the overlay entry exists to satisfy that lookup (material_id
stays None, as with ASHP); the rate sheet remains authoritative.
Validated on a 12-property sample (incl. a secondary-glazing case and a
SAP-Schema-16.2 cert): 12/12 baseline rows + plans, 0 errors.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Table 5 reads "Number of extract fans if known; if number is unknown:
[age-band default]" — the default is an UNKNOWN-fallback, NOT a floor. The
cascade applied `max(lodged, table_5_default)`, flooring a genuinely-lodged
count up to the age-band minimum: e.g. an age H-M dwelling lodging 2 extract
fans was billed at the 6-8-room default of 3, over-counting ventilation line
(8) and the heat-loss coefficient. Fixed to `lodged if lodged > 0 else
default` (a lodged 0 is the Elmhurst/RdSAP "unknown" form → default; any
positive count is taken literally).
Surfaced by Khalim's Elmhurst stress worksheet (simulated case 46): this was
its last ventilation residual — our Jan effective ACH 9.14 -> 9.0748 (exact
match to the accredited worksheet), SAP 29 -> 30 = Elmhurst, cost £1496 vs
£1493. Corpus IMPROVED: within-0.5 71.6% -> 72.5%, MAE 0.819 -> 0.815 (the
max-flooring over-counted ventilation on every cert lodging fans below its
age default). Floor ratcheted 0.71 -> 0.72. pyright not installed locally.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
When the main heating system does not heat every habitable room (heated rooms
< habitable rooms), SAP 10.2 Appendix A.2.2 assumes the unheated rooms are
served by a portable-electric secondary heater, so the Table 11 secondary
fraction (0.10 for a boiler main) must be costed at the electricity tariff —
even when the cert lodges no explicit secondary system.
`_secondary_fraction` previously returned 0 unless a secondary was lodged or
the main was a forced-secondary electric-storage code, dropping the assumed
secondary and billing 100% of space heat to the (cheaper) main fuel — an
over-rate. Added an `unheated_habitable_rooms` trigger plus
`_has_unheated_habitable_rooms(epc)`, which prefers the lodged
`any_unheated_rooms` flag and guards the gov-API `heated_rooms_count == 0`
"not provided" sentinel. The secondary fuel/efficiency cascade already
defaults to portable electric (code 693) when no secondary code is lodged.
Worksheet-validated on simulated case 46 (heated 4 < habitable 7, no lodged
secondary): the assumed 10% electric secondary (2289 kWh, ~£260) lifted our
SAP 39 -> 29.35 vs accredited Elmhurst 30 (cost £1502 vs £1493, within 0.6%).
Corpus UNCHANGED (71.6% / MAE 0.819): all 17 corpus certs with heated <
habitable already lodge an explicit secondary description, so the gov-API
path was already costing it; this only adds the assumed secondary where none
is lodged (Elmhurst / reduced-field path). pyright not installed locally.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
The full RdSAP-Schema-21 label is "Double between 2002 and 2021" (double
glazing installed 2002-2021, SAP 10.2 Table 24 code 3). When the Elmhurst
Summary PDF wraps the trailing "and 2021" into an adjacent table cell that
the extractor joins away, the surfaced label truncates to "Double between
2002" — the same artifact already handled for "Triple post or during".
`_elmhurst_glazing_type_code` raised UnmappedElmhurstLabel on it, blocking
the whole Summary (surfaced on the simulated-case-46 multi-attribute
worksheet). Added the truncated form as a code-3 alias.
pyright not installed in this container.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
`u_window` hard-coded the 12 mm gap row for pre-2002 double/triple glazing
(double 2.8, triple 2.1), ignoring the lodged glazing gap. Table 24 splits
the pre-2002 rows by gap: double 6mm=3.1 / 12mm=2.8 / 16mm+=2.7; triple
6mm=2.4 / 12mm=2.1 / 16mm+=2.0 (PVC/wooden), with a metal-frame column
(+0.5/+0.5/+0.5 ish). Added a `glazing_gap` parameter + `_glazing_gap_row`
helper and wired `w.glazing_gap` through the synthesised-window caller in
heat_transmission.
Corpus impact nil by design: the gov-API mapper already resolves per-window
U gap-aware via `_API_GLAZING_TYPE_GAP_TO_TRANSMISSION` (e.g. code 3 + gap
"16+" → 2.7), so corpus certs use that lodged per-window U, not this fallback.
This aligns the reduced-field / worksheet fallback path with the mapper and
Table 24. Unknown gap still defaults to the 12 mm row.
(Metal frames are not distinguishable on the gov-API path — only a `pvc_frame`
boolean exists and Table 24 groups PVC+wooden — so the PVC/wooden U stands
there; the metal column applies only where frame material is lodged.)
Spec-pinned: pre-2002 double + triple gap-row tests. pyright not installed.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Table 24 "Double or triple glazed, 2022 or later" row gives U = 1.4 for
PVC/wooden frames and 1.6 for metal frames. `u_window` returned 1.4 for both,
ignoring the metal-frame variant and under-counting metal-frame heat loss on
post-2022 windows. The 2002-2021 and pre-2002 rows already split PVC/metal
correctly; this aligns the 2022+ row.
Spec-pinned in test_u_window_post_2022_metal_returns_table24_1_6_not_pvc_1_4.
pyright not installed in this container.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
A full row-by-row audit of the roof U-value tables (16, 17, 18) and floor
tables (19, 20) against the PDF found one numeric error: Table 18 column (2)
"Pitched, insulation at rafters" band M is 0.15 W/m²K (footnote (1) only — no
country variation; the whole M row converges to 0.15), but _ROOF_RAFTERS_BY_AGE
carried 0.18. The rafters column diverges above the joist column at H-L
(0.35/0.35/0.20/0.20/0.18) and rejoins it at M=0.15.
Everything else in the roof/floor tables is exact: Table 16 joist + rafter
thickness ladders, Table 17 room-in-roof (all 6 columns), Table 18 cols (1)
joists / (3) flat / (4) room-in-roof, Table 19 (England & Wales) floor
insulation defaults, and Table 20 (England) exposed-floor U-values.
Known remaining gaps (NOT fixed — zero England-corpus reach, would need a new
roof country-override mechanism): Scotland Table 18 footnote (2) K=0.20 (flat/
RR/thatch) and (3) joists-L=0.15; Scotland/NI Table 19 thicknesses; Scotland/
Wales Table 20 L/M overrides. Logged for a future country pass.
Corpus unchanged (band-M rafter roofs essentially absent from the 1000-cert
England corpus). pyright not installed in this container.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
The corrected stone branch (age-E-only cap, §3.5 Table-3 unknown-thickness
default, Scotland band-J override) improved the corpus gauge to SAP MAE 0.819
and PE MAE 3.6 kWh/m2/yr. Lock the gains in and record the corrected
mechanism in the provenance log; within-0.5 (71.6%) and CO2 (0.08) unchanged.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
