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Author SHA1 Message Date
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar
7ca1f815f6 refactor(epc-prediction): PR review — rename ComparableProperty, relocate PredictionTarget
Two review points from @dancafc:

1) Rename the `Comparable` dataclass → `ComparableProperty` (it models one
   comparable *property*; the collection stays `ComparableProperties`). Applied
   across domain, repositories, orchestration, harness, scripts, and tests with a
   word-boundary rename so `ComparableProperties` is untouched.

2) Move `PredictionTarget` out of comparable_properties.py into prediction_target.py
   (where `PredictionTargetAttributes` + `build_prediction_target` already live).
   comparable_properties.py now imports it; no import cycle (prediction_target no
   longer depends on comparable_properties). Importers updated.

92 tests pass across the touched suites; pyright strict clean.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-16 13:34:44 +00:00
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar
fa11df56c2 fix(epc-prediction): dedupe re-lodgements + leak-free leave-one-out (ADR-0029)
The register lists every historical lodgement, so a postcode cohort
contains the same physical address many times (LS61AA: 15 certs / 11
addresses; NG71AA: 15 / 9 — "FLAT 3" appears 3x in each). Two
consequences:

  - Production: a re-lodged neighbour was counting up to 3x towards the
    cohort mode. select_comparables now dedupes candidates to the latest
    cert per address (one comparable per real neighbour) — Comparable
    gains address + registration_date (the register metadata its docstring
    already anticipated, read straight off the cached payload).

  - Validation: leave-one-out leaked — predicting a flat from a near-
    identical re-lodgement of itself. The harness now holds out a whole
    address (excludes every sibling cert) and evaluates on the latest cert
    per address (the best ground truth).

Removing the leak gives the honest numbers (19 distinct addresses):
  wall_construction      93.1% -> 89.5%
  construction_age_band  65.5% -> 52.6%
  roof_construction      79.3% -> 68.4%
  floor_area mean|.|     37.9  -> 52.6 m2
The earlier figures were inflated by self-leakage; these are the real
accuracy to beat.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-14 00:40:23 +00:00
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar
bf6b6fac17 feat(epc-prediction): Comparable Properties selection ladder (ADR-0029)
Pure-domain select_comparables: property type is an always-hard filter; built
form and known Landlord Overrides (e.g. solid brick) are conditioning filters on
the filter-then-relax ladder — applied while >= minimum_cohort survive, relaxed
otherwise (the mixed-street border case degrades gracefully). PredictionTarget
(known inputs) + Comparable (epc + register metadata) + ComparableProperties
(selected cohort). Weighting (recency x similarity) follows in the synthesis slice.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-13 23:44:57 +00:00