Model/applications/modelling_e2e/handler.py
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar 0c70280dea guard(modelling_e2e): quarantine predicted Properties the calculator mis-scores
TEMPORARY guard (remove once the SAP calculator's oil-heating under-score is
fixed): a predicted oil-boiler picture scores SAP 13/G against its own
synthesised recorded SAP of 50/E, so the optimiser overshoots goal C all the
way to band A and publishes nonsense.

A predicted EpcPropertyData carries its recorded SAP (energy_rating_current).
When the calculator baseline diverges from it by more than ~one band (20 SAP
points), withhold the Plan: raise inside the per-property loop so the existing
failure isolation drops just that property into `failures` and fails the
subtask, while every other property still models and persists. Lodged
Properties are untouched — they have a real recorded cert and the Rebaseliner
already owns this check.

Verified end-to-end against property 713406 (UPRN 100061849247): baseline 13.2
vs recorded 50 -> quarantined, no Plan written.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-24 09:07:24 +00:00

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"""SQS-triggered Lambda: fetch EPC (or predict) → run modelling → persist plan.
One SQS message = one batch of properties sharing a portfolio, scenario, and
(by caller convention) postcode. The handler reads ``property_ids``,
``portfolio_id``, ``scenario_id``, ``no_solar``, and ``dry_run`` from the
message body, fetches or predicts each property's EPC, runs the full modelling
pipeline (SAP10 → optimiser) via ``harness.console.run_modelling``, and
persists the resulting Plan via ``PostgresUnitOfWork`` in one atomic transaction
per property.
When no lodged EPC is found, EPC Prediction (Path 3, ADR-0031) synthesises one
from the postcode cohort. ``_cohort_cache`` is module-level so warm Lambda
containers re-processing the same postcode avoid redundant fetches.
All Measure Types are considered: pricing goes through
``catalogue_with_off_catalogue_overrides`` so the measures the live ``material``
catalogue cannot supply (``secondary_heating_removal``, the glazing and heating
gaps) are priced from the committed off-catalogue overlay instead of crashing.
DB engine is module-scoped so the connection pool is reused across warm
invocations (ADR-0012).
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import dataclasses
import io
import json
import os
from collections.abc import Callable
from typing import Any, Optional, cast
import boto3
import pandas as pd # pyright: ignore[reportMissingTypeStubs]
from sqlalchemy import Engine, text
from sqlmodel import Session
from datatypes.epc.domain.epc_property_data import (
BuildingPartIdentifier,
EpcPropertyData,
)
from domain.epc_prediction.comparable_properties import (
ComparableProperty,
select_comparables,
)
from domain.epc_prediction.epc_prediction import EpcPrediction
from domain.epc_prediction.prediction_target import (
PredictionTarget,
build_prediction_target,
)
from domain.geospatial.coordinates import Coordinates
from domain.geospatial.planning_restrictions import PlanningRestrictions
from domain.geospatial.spatial_reference import SpatialReference
from domain.property.property import Property, PropertyIdentity
from domain.property_baseline.calculator_rebaseliner import CalculatorRebaseliner
from domain.sap10_calculator.calculator import Sap10Calculator
from domain.tasks.tasks import Source
from harness.console import run_modelling
from orchestration.property_baseline_orchestrator import (
PropertyBaselineOrchestrator,
)
from infrastructure.epc_client.epc_client_service import EpcClientService
from infrastructure.postcodes_io.postcodes_io_client import PostcodesIoClient
from infrastructure.postgres.config import PostgresConfig
from infrastructure.postgres.engine import make_engine
from infrastructure.solar.google_solar_api_client import (
BuildingInsightsNotFoundError,
GoogleSolarApiClient,
)
from applications.modelling_e2e.modelling_e2e_trigger_body import (
ModellingE2ETriggerBody,
)
from repositories.comparable_properties.epc_comparable_properties_repository import (
EpcComparablePropertiesRepository,
SkippedCohortCert,
)
from repositories.geospatial.geospatial_s3_repository import (
GeospatialS3Repository,
ParquetReader,
)
from repositories.fuel_rates.fuel_rates_static_file_repository import (
FuelRatesStaticFileRepository,
)
from repositories.postgres_unit_of_work import PostgresUnitOfWork
from repositories.product.composite_product_repository import (
catalogue_with_off_catalogue_overrides,
)
from repositories.property.landlord_override_overlays import overlays_from
from repositories.property.override_backed_prediction_attributes_reader import (
OverrideBackedPredictionAttributesReader,
)
from repositories.property.property_overrides_postgres_reader import (
PropertyOverridesPostgresReader,
)
from repositories.scenario.scenario_postgres_repository import (
ScenarioPostgresRepository,
)
from repositories.solar.solar_postgres_repository import SolarPostgresRepository
from utilities.aws_lambda.task_handler import task_handler
from utilities.logger import setup_logger
_engine: Optional[Engine] = None
_cohort_cache: dict[str, list[ComparableProperty]] = {}
# Broadened (nearby-postcode) cohorts, keyed by (seed postcode, target property
# type): the early-stop walk depends on the type it is filling for, so two types
# in the same postcode must not share a cached result.
_nearby_cohort_cache: dict[tuple[str, str], list[ComparableProperty]] = {}
logger = setup_logger()
def _get_engine() -> Engine:
global _engine
if _engine is None:
config = PostgresConfig.from_env(dict(os.environ))
# Reduced pool for Lambda: 32 concurrent containers × 3 connections = 96 max,
# vs the default 3+5=8 which would reach 256+ and exhaust RDS max_connections.
# pool_size=2 covers the simultaneous read_session + UoW session per invocation.
_engine = make_engine(dataclasses.replace(config, pool_size=2, max_overflow=1))
return _engine
def _s3_parquet_reader() -> ParquetReader:
bucket = os.environ["DATA_BUCKET"]
def read(key: str) -> pd.DataFrame:
s3: Any = cast(
Any, boto3.client("s3")
) # pyright: ignore[reportUnknownMemberType]
raw = cast(bytes, s3.get_object(Bucket=bucket, Key=key)["Body"].read())
return pd.read_parquet(io.BytesIO(raw)) # type: ignore[return-value]
return read
def _spatial_for(
geospatial: GeospatialS3Repository, uprn: int
) -> Optional[SpatialReference]:
try:
return geospatial.spatial_for(uprn)
except Exception: # noqa: BLE001
return None
def _solar_insights_for(
solar_client: GoogleSolarApiClient, spatial: Optional[SpatialReference]
) -> Optional[dict[str, Any]]:
if spatial is None or spatial.coordinates is None:
return None
try:
return solar_client.get_building_insights(
spatial.coordinates.longitude, spatial.coordinates.latitude
)
except BuildingInsightsNotFoundError:
return None
def _dedupe_skipped(
skipped: list[SkippedCohortCert],
) -> list[SkippedCohortCert]:
"""First occurrence of each skipped cert number (the same cert can appear in
more than one postcode cohort across a batch)."""
seen: set[str] = set()
unique: list[SkippedCohortCert] = []
for cert in skipped:
if cert.certificate_number not in seen:
seen.add(cert.certificate_number)
unique.append(cert)
return unique
def _predict_epc(
*,
property_id: int,
uprn: int,
postcode: str,
portfolio_id: int,
attributes_reader: OverrideBackedPredictionAttributesReader,
coordinates: Optional[Coordinates],
cohort_for: Callable[[str], list[ComparableProperty]],
broaden: Callable[[PredictionTarget], list[ComparableProperty]],
predictor: EpcPrediction,
) -> Optional[EpcPropertyData]:
"""Synthesise an EpcPropertyData for an EPC-less property from its postcode
cohort (EPC Prediction Path 3, ADR-0031), or None when ineligible.
When the property's own postcode holds no same-type comparables (a sparse
postcode — e.g. the only flat among houses), the cohort is broadened to the
real unit postcodes physically nearest it (``broaden``) before giving up.
Returns None when property_type is unresolvable (hard cohort filter cannot
fire) or when even the broadened cohort is empty after filtering.
"""
attributes = attributes_reader.attributes_for(property_id)
identity = PropertyIdentity(
portfolio_id=portfolio_id, postcode=postcode, address="", uprn=uprn
)
target = build_prediction_target(identity, coordinates, attributes)
if target is None:
return None
comparables = select_comparables(target, cohort_for(target.postcode))
if not comparables.members:
comparables = select_comparables(target, broaden(target))
if not comparables.members:
return None
predicted = predictor.predict(target, comparables)
if not any(
part.identifier is BuildingPartIdentifier.MAIN
for part in predicted.sap_building_parts
):
return None
return predicted
# --- TEMPORARY GUARD: remove once the SAP calculator's oil-heating under-score
# is fixed (predicted oil-boiler picture scores SAP 13/G vs a recorded 50/E). ---
# A predicted EpcPropertyData carries its own recorded SAP (energy_rating_current,
# synthesised from the cohort). When the calculator's baseline score contradicts
# that by more than ~one EPC band the picture is being mis-scored, so any Plan
# built on it overshoots (e.g. goal C lands at band A). Quarantine the property —
# skip its Plan — rather than ship nonsense. Lodged properties are unaffected:
# they have a real recorded cert and the Rebaseliner already owns this check.
_PREDICTED_BASELINE_DIVERGENCE_GUARD = 20.0 # SAP points (~one EPC band)
class ImplausiblePredictedBaseline(Exception):
"""A predicted Property's calculator baseline contradicts its recorded SAP by
more than a band — the calculator is mis-scoring the synthesised picture, so
the Plan is untrustworthy and is withheld (caught per-property as a failure)."""
def _predicted_baseline_is_implausible(
baseline_sap: float, recorded_sap: Optional[int]
) -> bool:
"""True when a predicted Property's calculator baseline diverges from the
picture's own recorded SAP by more than the guard band. A missing recorded
SAP (no reference) is never implausible — the guard only fires on a concrete
contradiction."""
if recorded_sap is None:
return False
return abs(baseline_sap - recorded_sap) > _PREDICTED_BASELINE_DIVERGENCE_GUARD
@task_handler(task_source="modelling_e2e", source=Source.PROPERTY)
def handler(body: dict[str, Any], context: Any) -> Optional[dict[str, Any]]:
trigger = ModellingE2ETriggerBody.model_validate(body)
property_ids = trigger.property_ids
portfolio_id = trigger.portfolio_id
scenario_id = trigger.scenario_id
no_solar = trigger.no_solar
dry_run = trigger.dry_run
logger.info(
f"start property_ids={property_ids} portfolio={portfolio_id} "
f"scenario={scenario_id} no_solar={no_solar} dry_run={dry_run}"
)
engine = _get_engine()
epc_client = EpcClientService(os.environ["OPEN_EPC_API_TOKEN"])
geospatial = GeospatialS3Repository(_s3_parquet_reader())
solar_client = GoogleSolarApiClient(os.environ["GOOGLE_SOLAR_API_KEY"])
with engine.connect() as conn:
uprn_rows = conn.execute(
text("SELECT id, uprn FROM property WHERE id = ANY(:ids)"),
{"ids": property_ids},
).fetchall()
postcode_rows = conn.execute(
text("SELECT id, postcode FROM property WHERE id = ANY(:ids)"),
{"ids": property_ids},
).fetchall()
uprns: dict[int, int] = {int(row[0]): int(row[1]) for row in uprn_rows}
postcodes: dict[int, str] = {int(row[0]): (row[1] or "") for row in postcode_rows}
overrides_reader = PropertyOverridesPostgresReader(lambda: Session(engine))
prediction_attrs_reader = OverrideBackedPredictionAttributesReader(overrides_reader)
comparables_repo = EpcComparablePropertiesRepository(
epc_client, geospatial, nearby_postcodes=PostcodesIoClient()
)
predictor = EpcPrediction()
def _get_cohort(postcode: str) -> list[ComparableProperty]:
if postcode not in _cohort_cache:
_cohort_cache[postcode] = (
comparables_repo.candidates_for(postcode) if postcode else []
)
return _cohort_cache[postcode]
def _broaden(target: PredictionTarget) -> list[ComparableProperty]:
"""The nearby-postcode cohort for a gated-out target — the real unit
postcodes nearest it, walked until enough same-type comparables surface
(ADR-0034). Memoised per (postcode, property_type) so co-located
same-type misses share one walk."""
key = (target.postcode, target.property_type)
if key not in _nearby_cohort_cache:
_nearby_cohort_cache[key] = (
comparables_repo.candidates_near(
target.postcode,
target.coordinates,
enough=lambda c: c.epc.property_type == target.property_type,
)
if target.postcode
else []
)
return _nearby_cohort_cache[key]
# Re-establishes each lodged Property's Baseline Performance from the just-
# persisted EPC (one UoW per property, committed after the Plan's). Predicted
# Properties have no lodged figures, so they get no baseline (mirrors the e2e
# runner and the ara_first_run Baseline stage).
baseline_orchestrator = PropertyBaselineOrchestrator(
unit_of_work=lambda: PostgresUnitOfWork(lambda: Session(engine)),
rebaseliner=CalculatorRebaseliner(Sap10Calculator()),
fuel_rates=FuelRatesStaticFileRepository(),
)
read_session = Session(engine)
try:
scenario = ScenarioPostgresRepository(read_session).get_many([scenario_id])[0]
products = catalogue_with_off_catalogue_overrides(read_session)
solar_reader = SolarPostgresRepository(read_session)
failures: list[dict[str, Any]] = []
for property_id in property_ids:
try:
uprn = uprns[property_id]
postcode = postcodes.get(property_id, "")
logger.info(f"property={property_id} uprn={uprn} postcode={postcode!r}")
spatial = _spatial_for(geospatial, uprn)
restrictions = (
spatial.restrictions
if spatial is not None
else PlanningRestrictions()
)
coordinates: Optional[Coordinates] = (
spatial.coordinates if spatial is not None else None
)
epc: Optional[EpcPropertyData] = epc_client.get_by_uprn(uprn)
overrides = overlays_from(overrides_reader.overrides_for(property_id))
predicted_epc: Optional[EpcPropertyData] = None
if epc is not None:
logger.info(f"property={property_id} lodged EPC found")
effective_epc = Property(
identity=PropertyIdentity(
portfolio_id=portfolio_id,
postcode=postcode,
address="",
uprn=uprn,
),
epc=epc,
landlord_overrides=overrides,
).effective_epc
else:
logger.info(
f"property={property_id} no lodged EPC — attempting prediction"
)
predicted_epc = _predict_epc(
property_id=property_id,
uprn=uprn,
postcode=postcode,
portfolio_id=portfolio_id,
attributes_reader=prediction_attrs_reader,
coordinates=coordinates,
cohort_for=_get_cohort,
broaden=_broaden,
predictor=predictor,
)
if predicted_epc is None:
raise ValueError(
f"no EPC for UPRN {uprn} and not predictable "
f"(unresolved property_type, or no same-type "
f"comparables in or near '{postcode}')"
)
effective_epc = Property(
identity=PropertyIdentity(
portfolio_id=portfolio_id,
postcode=postcode,
address="",
uprn=uprn,
),
epc=None,
predicted_epc=predicted_epc,
landlord_overrides=overrides,
).effective_epc
# Read-before-fetch: the Google Solar call is paid, so skip it
# when this UPRN's insights are already persisted. Only a cache
# miss hits Google — re-runs cost nothing for solar.
solar_insights: Optional[dict[str, Any]]
solar_was_fetched = False
if no_solar:
solar_insights = None
else:
solar_insights = solar_reader.get(uprn)
if solar_insights is None:
solar_insights = _solar_insights_for(solar_client, spatial)
solar_was_fetched = solar_insights is not None
# All Measure Types are considered: the off-catalogue overlay
# (catalogue_with_off_catalogue_overrides) prices the measures the
# live material catalogue cannot supply, so none need excluding.
plan = run_modelling(
effective_epc,
planning_restrictions=restrictions,
solar_insights=solar_insights,
considered_measures=None,
products=products,
scenario=scenario,
print_table=False,
)
logger.info(
f"property={property_id} modelling complete "
f"measures={len(plan.measures)}"
)
# Quarantine a predicted Property whose calculator baseline
# contradicts its synthesised recorded SAP (TEMPORARY guard —
# see _predicted_baseline_is_implausible). Raising drops this one
# property into `failures` and skips its Plan/Baseline; the rest
# of the batch is unaffected.
if predicted_epc is not None and _predicted_baseline_is_implausible(
plan.baseline.sap_continuous, effective_epc.energy_rating_current
):
raise ImplausiblePredictedBaseline(
f"property={property_id}: predicted baseline SAP "
f"{plan.baseline.sap_continuous:.1f} diverges from the "
f"picture's recorded SAP {effective_epc.energy_rating_current} "
f"by > {_PREDICTED_BASELINE_DIVERGENCE_GUARD:.0f} points — "
f"likely a calculator mis-score; withholding the plan"
)
if dry_run:
measure_types = (
", ".join(m.measure_type for m in plan.measures) or "none"
)
logger.info(
f"[dry_run] property={property_id} "
f"measures=[{measure_types}] — skipping DB write"
)
continue
with PostgresUnitOfWork(lambda: Session(engine)) as uow:
if epc is not None:
uow.epc.save(
epc, property_id=property_id, portfolio_id=portfolio_id
)
elif predicted_epc is not None:
# Persist the synthesised EPC in the predicted slot (ADR-0031),
# so the Baseline stage can re-hydrate it and downstream sees
# the picture the Plan was modelled from.
uow.epc.save(
predicted_epc,
property_id=property_id,
portfolio_id=portfolio_id,
source="predicted",
)
if spatial is not None:
uow.spatial.save(uprn, spatial)
if (
solar_was_fetched
and solar_insights is not None
and spatial is not None
and spatial.coordinates is not None
):
uow.solar.save(
uprn,
longitude=spatial.coordinates.longitude,
latitude=spatial.coordinates.latitude,
insights=solar_insights,
)
uow.plan.save(
plan,
property_id=property_id,
scenario_id=scenario_id,
portfolio_id=portfolio_id,
is_default=scenario.is_default,
)
uow.property.mark_modelled(
property_id, has_recommendations=bool(plan.measures)
)
uow.commit()
logger.info(f"property={property_id} plan saved")
# Baseline Performance is re-established from the persisted EPC
# (lodged or predicted), so it runs after the Plan UoW commits. By
# here the property always has a persisted EPC — a property that
# could be neither fetched nor predicted raised earlier.
baseline_orchestrator.run([property_id])
logger.info(f"property={property_id} baseline saved")
except Exception as error: # noqa: BLE001
logger.error(
f"property={property_id} uprn={uprns.get(property_id)}: "
f"{type(error).__name__}: {error}",
exc_info=True,
)
failures.append(
{
"property_id": property_id,
"uprn": uprns.get(property_id),
"error_type": type(error).__name__,
"error": str(error),
}
)
# Cohort certs the mapper could not consume were skipped (not aborted on)
# so prediction could proceed; surface them — with cert numbers — in the
# subtask outputs so the mapper gaps can be closed later.
skipped_certs: list[dict[str, str]] = [
{"certificate_number": s.certificate_number, "error": s.error}
for s in _dedupe_skipped(comparables_repo.skipped)
]
if skipped_certs:
logger.info(
f"skipped {len(skipped_certs)} unmappable cohort cert(s): "
f"{[s['certificate_number'] for s in skipped_certs]}"
)
# A property that errored AND a cohort cert the mapper could not consume
# are both surfaced as failures, so the subtask is marked failed and
# shows up for debugging. The whole batch has already run by this point —
# every property that could be modelled was written to DB above — so
# failing here flags the run without discarding the work done so far.
if failures or skipped_certs:
parts: list[str] = []
if failures:
failed_ids = [f["property_id"] for f in failures]
# Persisted verbatim into the subtask's outputs.error (via
# SubTask.fail): include each property's error type + message,
# not just the IDs, so failed runs are diagnosable without
# cross-referencing CloudWatch.
parts.append(
f"failed property_ids: {failed_ids}; "
f"details: {json.dumps(failures)}"
)
if skipped_certs:
parts.append(
f"skipped_unmappable_cohort_certs: {json.dumps(skipped_certs)}"
)
raise RuntimeError("; ".join(parts))
return None
finally:
read_session.close()