Model/domain/epc_prediction/epc_prediction.py
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar 54a57363f8 feat(epc-prediction): cohort-mode the roof/floor/insulation/age categoricals (ADR-0029)
Only main wall_construction was set to the cohort mode; the other
homogeneous categoricals (wall insulation, construction age band, roof
construction, floor construction) were left as template-copied, so one
median-size template's quirks set them. Apply the same cohort-mode
mechanism to all of them per ADR-0029 decision 4 — the template still
supplies geometry, only the categorical codes move to the mode.

Verified mode beats (or ties) template-copy per categorical before
applying. Smoke corpus (29 leave-one-out) classification rates:
  construction_age_band  55.2% -> 65.5%
  roof_construction      72.4% -> 79.3%
  floor_construction     46.2% -> 84.6%
  wall_insulation_type   93.1% (tie — already template-strong)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-14 00:31:16 +00:00

131 lines
4.8 KiB
Python

"""EPC Prediction synthesis (ADR-0029).
`EpcPrediction.predict` turns the selected `ComparableProperties` into a
predicted `EpcPropertyData`: copy a coherent representative template's structure
(building parts, windows, geometry), set the homogeneous categoricals to the
recency-weighted cohort mode, then apply Landlord Overrides on top. Pure domain
logic — deterministic neighbour synthesis, not ML.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import copy
import statistics
from collections import Counter
from typing import Iterable, Optional, Union
from datatypes.epc.domain.epc_property_data import (
EpcPropertyData,
SapBuildingPart,
)
from domain.epc_prediction.comparable_properties import (
Comparable,
ComparableProperties,
PredictionTarget,
)
class EpcPrediction:
"""Synthesises a predicted `EpcPropertyData` from Comparable Properties."""
def predict(
self, target: PredictionTarget, comparables: ComparableProperties
) -> EpcPropertyData:
"""Predict the target's EPC picture: copy a representative template's
structure (coherent for the calculator), then set the homogeneous
categoricals to the cohort mode."""
template: Comparable = self._template(comparables)
predicted: EpcPropertyData = copy.deepcopy(template.epc)
self._apply_categorical_modes(predicted, comparables)
self._apply_overrides(predicted, target)
return predicted
@staticmethod
def _template(comparables: ComparableProperties) -> Comparable:
"""The representative comparable whose structure seeds the prediction:
the member whose floor area is closest to the cohort median. A single
neighbour's geometry is copied wholesale, so a size-representative
template keeps the prediction off the cohort's size outliers (ADR-0029
decision 4: closest on size)."""
members: tuple[Comparable, ...] = comparables.members
median_area: float = statistics.median(
c.epc.total_floor_area_m2 for c in members
)
return min(
members,
key=lambda c: abs(c.epc.total_floor_area_m2 - median_area),
)
@staticmethod
def _apply_categorical_modes(
predicted: EpcPropertyData, comparables: ComparableProperties
) -> None:
"""Override the predicted picture's homogeneous categoricals — wall /
roof / floor construction, wall insulation, age band — with the cohort
mode (robust to an atypical template, per ADR-0029 decision 4). The
template still supplies the geometry; only the categorical codes move to
the mode."""
if not predicted.sap_building_parts:
return
main: SapBuildingPart = predicted.sap_building_parts[0]
members = comparables.members
for attr in _MAIN_PART_CATEGORICALS:
mode = _mode(_main_part_attr(c, attr) for c in members)
if mode is not None:
setattr(main, attr, mode)
floor_values: list[int] = [
v for c in members if (v := _main_floor_construction(c)) is not None
]
floor_dims = main.sap_floor_dimensions
if floor_values and floor_dims:
floor_dims[0].floor_construction = Counter(floor_values).most_common(
1
)[0][0]
@staticmethod
def _apply_overrides(
predicted: EpcPropertyData, target: PredictionTarget
) -> None:
"""Apply the known Landlord Overrides on top of the estimate — a known
value always wins over the cohort mode (ADR-0029)."""
if not predicted.sap_building_parts:
return
if target.wall_construction is not None:
predicted.sap_building_parts[0].wall_construction = (
target.wall_construction
)
# The homogeneous categoricals carried directly on the main building part. Floor
# construction lives on the main floor dimension and is handled separately.
_MAIN_PART_CATEGORICALS: tuple[str, ...] = (
"wall_construction",
"wall_insulation_type",
"construction_age_band",
"roof_construction",
)
def _main_part_attr(
comparable: Comparable, attr: str
) -> Optional[Union[int, str]]:
parts: list[SapBuildingPart] = comparable.epc.sap_building_parts
return getattr(parts[0], attr) if parts else None
def _main_floor_construction(comparable: Comparable) -> Optional[int]:
parts: list[SapBuildingPart] = comparable.epc.sap_building_parts
if not parts:
return None
dims = parts[0].sap_floor_dimensions
return dims[0].floor_construction if dims else None
def _mode(
values: Iterable[Optional[Union[int, str]]],
) -> Optional[Union[int, str]]:
"""The most common non-None value, or None when there are none."""
present = [v for v in values if v is not None]
if not present:
return None
return Counter(present).most_common(1)[0][0]