Model/orchestration/modelling_orchestrator.py
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar b3f4609c2d feat(modelling): wire Valuation Uplift onto the Plan
The Plan derives its Valuation Uplift (ADR-0018) from its baseline -> post
band jump and works+contingency cost, given one external input — the
Property's current market value (a Property Valuation, mostly absent).
`Plan.valuation` / `Plan.baseline_epc_rating` are derived like the other
headline figures; `PlanModel.from_domain` maps the £ forms to the live
plan.valuation_* columns (NULL when no value — the percentage is not
persisted on those columns). `Property.current_market_value` is the new
optional source; the orchestrator threads it onto the Plan. `run_one`
takes a `current_market_value` so the harness can value the uplift, and
the sense-check table shows the average % (always) plus the £ forms when
known.

Sourcing the current market value (upload / default) remains deferred
(ADR-0018); it is None throughout until that lands, so the columns stay
NULL at scale.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-04 08:59:04 +00:00

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from __future__ import annotations
from collections.abc import Callable
from typing import Final, Optional
from datatypes.epc.domain.epc import Epc
from datatypes.epc.domain.epc_property_data import EpcPropertyData
from domain.billing.bill import Bill, EnergyBreakdown
from domain.billing.bill_derivation import BillDerivation
from domain.modelling.generators.floor_recommendation import recommend_floor_insulation
from domain.modelling.optimisation.measure_dependency import ventilation_dependency
from domain.modelling.optimisation.optimiser import (
MeasureDependency,
OptimisedPackage,
ScoredOption,
optimise_package,
)
from domain.modelling.scoring.package_scorer import PackageScorer, Score
from domain.modelling.plan import Plan, PlanMeasure
from domain.modelling.recommendation import MeasureOption, Recommendation
from domain.modelling.generators.roof_recommendation import recommend_loft_insulation
from domain.modelling.scenario import Scenario
from domain.modelling.scoring.scoring import (
MeasureImpact,
cascade_scores,
independent_option_impacts,
marginals_from_scores,
)
from domain.modelling.generators.wall_recommendation import recommend_cavity_wall
from domain.sap10_calculator.calculator import SapCalculator
from repositories.fuel_rates.fuel_rates_repository import FuelRatesRepository
from repositories.product.product_repository import ProductRepository
from repositories.unit_of_work import UnitOfWork
# The PortfolioGoal value that targets a SAP band (cf.
# backend.app.db.models.portfolio.PortfolioGoal.INCREASING_EPC). Other goals
# (Energy Savings, Reducing CO2 emissions) don't yet set a SAP repair target —
# the optimiser just maximises SAP gain within budget for them (later slice).
_INCREASING_EPC_GOAL: Final[str] = "Increasing EPC"
# Best-practice install sequence for the role-3 attribution cascade (ADR-0016):
# walls → roof → ventilation → floor, per the legacy `Recommendations` class.
# Ventilation sits after the fabric that triggers it so its (negative) marginal
# is attributed against the insulated envelope.
_BEST_PRACTICE_ORDER: Final[tuple[str, ...]] = (
"cavity_wall_insulation",
"external_wall_insulation",
"internal_wall_insulation",
"loft_insulation",
"mechanical_ventilation",
"suspended_floor_insulation",
"solid_floor_insulation",
)
class ModellingOrchestrator:
"""Stage 3 — scores each baselined Property against its Scenarios into Plans
and persists them (CONTEXT.md: Modelling; ADR-0011 / ADR-0012 / ADR-0016 /
ADR-0017).
Runs the whole batch in **one** Unit of Work and commits once. For each
(Property × Scenario) it reads the Property's Effective EPC and the Scenario
through repos, generates the candidate Recommendations (wall / roof /
floor), scores each Option independently (role 1), runs the grouped-knapsack
Optimiser + whole-package re-score + greedy repair toward the Scenario's SAP
target (role 2, ADR-0016), attributes each selected measure via the
best-practice marginal cascade (role 3), and persists a **Plan** with its
**Plan Measures**. Single-phase — multi-phase is deferred (ADR-0005).
Reads only through repos and threads only IDs (`property_ids`,
`scenario_ids`, `portfolio_id`) — never an in-memory hand-off from Baseline
(ADR-0011). The injected `SapCalculator` is the scoring-engine seam.
"""
def __init__(
self,
*,
unit_of_work: Callable[[], UnitOfWork],
calculator: SapCalculator,
fuel_rates: FuelRatesRepository,
) -> None:
self._unit_of_work = unit_of_work
self._calculator = calculator
self._fuel_rates = fuel_rates
def run(
self, property_ids: list[int], scenario_ids: list[int], portfolio_id: int
) -> None:
scorer = PackageScorer(self._calculator)
# Resolve Fuel Rates once and reuse the BillDerivation across the batch,
# so every baseline/post bill is priced at the same snapshot (ADR-0014).
bill_derivation = BillDerivation(self._fuel_rates.get_current())
with self._unit_of_work() as uow:
properties = uow.property.get_many(property_ids)
scenarios: list[Scenario] = uow.scenario.get_many(scenario_ids)
for property_id, prop in zip(property_ids, properties, strict=True):
effective_epc: EpcPropertyData = prop.effective_epc
for scenario in scenarios:
plan = self._plan_for(
scorer,
bill_derivation,
effective_epc,
uow.product,
scenario,
current_market_value=prop.current_market_value,
)
uow.plan.save(
plan,
property_id=property_id,
scenario_id=scenario.id,
portfolio_id=portfolio_id,
is_default=scenario.is_default,
)
uow.commit()
def _plan_for(
self,
scorer: PackageScorer,
bill_derivation: BillDerivation,
effective_epc: EpcPropertyData,
products: ProductRepository,
scenario: Scenario,
*,
current_market_value: Optional[float],
) -> Plan:
"""Generate → score → optimise → re-score/repair → attribute → bill →
assemble the Plan for one Property + Scenario."""
groups: list[list[ScoredOption]] = _scored_candidate_groups(
scorer, effective_epc, products
)
# Forced Measure Dependencies (ventilation) are excluded from the pool
# but injected into the package before the re-score (ADR-0016).
dependencies: list[MeasureDependency] = _measure_dependencies(
effective_epc, products
)
package: OptimisedPackage = optimise_package(
groups=groups,
scorer=scorer,
baseline_epc=effective_epc,
budget=scenario.budget,
target_sap=_target_sap(scenario),
dependencies=dependencies,
)
# Role-3 attribution: re-apply the *selected* set in best-practice order
# so each measure's marginal telescopes to the truthful package total.
ordered: list[MeasureOption] = sorted(
(scored.option for scored in package.selected), key=_best_practice_key
)
# Score the baseline + every cumulative prefix once (cascade[0] is the
# baseline, cascade[-1] the whole package), then reuse those Scores for
# both the marginal attribution and the per-measure bill cascade.
cascade: list[Score] = cascade_scores(
scorer, effective_epc, [option.overlay for option in ordered]
)
impacts: list[MeasureImpact] = marginals_from_scores(cascade)
# Bill every prefix at one Fuel Rates snapshot; consecutive Bill deltas
# are each measure's marginal energy/cost saving — negative for
# ventilation — telescoping exactly to the Plan totals (ADR-0014). The
# Plan's baseline/post Bills are the cascade endpoints, so the
# per-measure savings and the headline savings share one source.
bills: list[Bill] = [_bill_for(bill_derivation, score) for score in cascade]
measures: tuple[PlanMeasure, ...] = tuple(
_plan_measure(option, impact, before, after)
for option, impact, before, after in zip(
ordered, impacts, bills[:-1], bills[1:], strict=True
)
)
return Plan(
measures=measures,
baseline=cascade[0],
post_retrofit=package.score,
baseline_bill=bills[0],
post_bill=bills[-1],
current_market_value=current_market_value,
)
def _bill_for(bill_derivation: BillDerivation, score: Score) -> Bill:
"""Derive the annual Bill for a scored end-state, pricing the delivered
energy off the Score's SapResult. The real PackageScorer always attaches the
SapResult; a missing one is a wiring error, so raise rather than bill at a
default (ADR-0014)."""
if score.sap_result is None:
raise ValueError(
"cannot derive a bill: the Score carries no SapResult to price"
)
return bill_derivation.derive(EnergyBreakdown.from_sap_result(score.sap_result))
def _candidate_recommendations(
effective_epc: EpcPropertyData, products: ProductRepository
) -> list[Recommendation]:
"""Run every fabric Recommendation Generator; keep the ones that apply."""
generators = (
recommend_cavity_wall,
recommend_loft_insulation,
recommend_floor_insulation,
)
found = (generator(effective_epc, products) for generator in generators)
return [recommendation for recommendation in found if recommendation is not None]
def _measure_dependencies(
effective_epc: EpcPropertyData, products: ProductRepository
) -> list[MeasureDependency]:
"""The forced Measure Dependencies for this Property — currently just
ventilation, suppressed when the dwelling is already mechanically
ventilated (ADR-0016)."""
dependency: Optional[MeasureDependency] = ventilation_dependency(
effective_epc, products
)
return [dependency] if dependency is not None else []
def _scored_candidate_groups(
scorer: PackageScorer,
effective_epc: EpcPropertyData,
products: ProductRepository,
) -> list[list[ScoredOption]]:
"""One group per Recommendation: each Option scored independently against
the baseline (role-1 warm-start signal, ADR-0016)."""
groups: list[list[ScoredOption]] = []
for recommendation in _candidate_recommendations(effective_epc, products):
options = list(recommendation.options)
impacts: list[MeasureImpact] = independent_option_impacts(
scorer, effective_epc, options
)
groups.append(
[
ScoredOption(option=option, sap_gain=impact.sap_points)
for option, impact in zip(options, impacts, strict=True)
]
)
return groups
def _target_sap(scenario: Scenario) -> Optional[float]:
"""The SAP rating the Optimiser repairs toward — the floor of the goal
band for an INCREASING_EPC goal, else None (no SAP target)."""
if scenario.goal != _INCREASING_EPC_GOAL:
return None
return float(Epc(scenario.goal_value).sap_lower_bound())
def _best_practice_key(option: MeasureOption) -> int:
try:
return _BEST_PRACTICE_ORDER.index(option.measure_type)
except ValueError:
return len(_BEST_PRACTICE_ORDER)
def _plan_measure(
option: MeasureOption, impact: MeasureImpact, before: Bill, after: Bill
) -> PlanMeasure:
"""Assemble a Plan Measure, attributing this measure's marginal bill saving
as the delta between the running package Bill before and after it (delivered
kWh and £). Signed so positive is a saving; ventilation is negative."""
if option.cost is None:
raise ValueError(
f"measure option {option.measure_type!r} has no cost; cannot persist"
)
return PlanMeasure(
measure_type=option.measure_type,
description=option.description,
cost=option.cost,
impact=impact,
kwh_savings=before.total_consumption_kwh - after.total_consumption_kwh,
energy_cost_savings=before.total_gbp - after.total_gbp,
material_id=option.material_id,
)