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250k retrain showed objective='mape' loses ~0.6 percentage points of global sap_score MAPE (3.92% with regression vs 4.50% with mape) and ~0.7 pts on peui_ucl. The mape objective over-weights the low-SAP tail (weight ~1/y) and drags the body MAPE up by more than it gains in the tail. Body MAPE on v16 features is already strong (2.38% on deciles 1-8); the remaining tail bias at decile 0 (SAP<58, +3.1 bias) needs a different fix -- sample weights or stratified loss -- queued as slice 16i. |
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