diff --git a/src/lib/services/epcSources.ts b/src/lib/services/epcSources.ts
index b50cdd78..8dd28206 100644
--- a/src/lib/services/epcSources.ts
+++ b/src/lib/services/epcSources.ts
@@ -77,16 +77,19 @@ export const newApproachJoins = sql`
 `;
 
 /**
- * Baseline carbon (t CO₂/yr). New: the lodged (gov-registry) value. Legacy:
- * e.co2_emissions. Swap to `effective_co2_emissions_t_per_yr` if the
- * modelling-adjusted baseline is wanted instead.
+ * Baseline carbon (t CO₂/yr). New: the effective (re-baselined) value — the
+ * canonical "current" per ADR-0002, and the baseline the plans' post_* figures
+ * were scored against. The lodged value is NULL for predicted-only properties
+ * (no mirrored estimate is written), which made lodged-based reporting totals
+ * silently exclude them — and drove "carbon saved" negative whenever their
+ * plans' post carbon counted on the scenario side. Legacy: e.co2_emissions.
  */
 export const carbonSql = (e: Alias) =>
-  sql`CASE WHEN ${isNewApproachSql} THEN bp.lodged_co2_emissions_t_per_yr ELSE ${e}.co2_emissions END`;
+  sql`CASE WHEN ${isNewApproachSql} THEN bp.effective_co2_emissions_t_per_yr ELSE ${e}.co2_emissions END`;
 
-/** Primary energy intensity (kWh/m²/yr). New: lodged value. Legacy: e.primary_energy_consumption. */
+/** Primary energy intensity (kWh/m²/yr). New: effective value (ADR-0002, as carbonSql). Legacy: e.primary_energy_consumption. */
 export const energyConsumptionSql = (e: Alias) =>
-  sql`CASE WHEN ${isNewApproachSql} THEN bp.lodged_primary_energy_intensity_kwh_per_m2_yr ELSE ${e}.primary_energy_consumption END`;
+  sql`CASE WHEN ${isNewApproachSql} THEN bp.effective_primary_energy_intensity_kwh_per_m2_yr ELSE ${e}.primary_energy_consumption END`;
 
 /**
  * Baseline SAP score. New: the lodged (gov-registry) score from
@@ -566,9 +569,9 @@ export async function resolveConditionReport(
  * effective score away from the lodged (gov-registry) EPC, so showing lodged as
  * "current" misrepresents a plan's uplift — e.g. lodged C/78 vs an effective
  * baseline of C/71 with a post-retrofit C/71.4 reads as flat instead of the real
- * improvement. The set-based reporting fragments (`sapSql`, `epcBandSql`,
- * `carbonSql`, …) deliberately stay on `lodged_*` to keep portfolio/reporting
- * totals matched to the gov register.
+ * improvement. The set-based reporting fragments (`effectiveSapSql`,
+ * `carbonSql`, `energyConsumptionSql`, …) read `effective_*` too (ADR-0002);
+ * only the dedicated "Lodged EPC" surfaces use the lodged fragments.
  */
 export async function resolvePropertyHeadline(
   propertyId: bigint,