feat(epc): provenance signals + effective-baseline portfolio table

Theme 1 — EPC card provenance. New resolveProvenanceSignal (pure, unit-
tested) + resolveProvenance expose provenanceSignal ("estimated" /
"remodelled" / "none") and the lodged headline on property-meta. The
building-passport card shows a "Lodged EPC" badge on re-modelled
properties (even within-band), never on predicted ones; the existing
"estimated from nearby homes" banner already covers predicted.

Theme 2 — portfolio table. "Current EPC" + reporting now read the
effective baseline (effectiveSapSql/effectiveEpcBandSql); a dedicated
"Lodged EPC" column reads the source-gated lodged value (blank for
predicted); a "Predicted" pill marks estimated rows; a provenance filter
is added and the broken currentEpc/lodgedEpc filters (on null row
columns) point at the effective/lodged baselines. Expected EPC now uses
the default plan's post rating (expectedEpcRating, unit-tested) instead
of current + Σ rec SAP, which double-counted across plans (732385: A→C);
the same rec aggregate is scoped to the default plan, fixing the Cost
column's 2x double-count.

See ADR-0002. Pure logic covered by provenance.test.ts + expectedEpc.test.ts;
SQL/query/UI verified against live properties 732385 and 729529.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

src/app/components/building-passport/CurrentEfficiencyCard.tsx

@@ -5,6 +5,9 @@ import { LodgedEpcTooltip } from "./LodgedEpcTooltip";
 interface CurrentEfficiencyCardProps {
   epcRating: string | null;
   sapPoints: number;
+  provenanceSignal?: "estimated" | "remodelled" | "none";
+  lodgedEpcRating?: string | null;
+  lodgedSapPoints?: number | null;
   originalSapPoints?: number | null;
 }
 
@@ -58,11 +61,24 @@ function getEpcDescription(letter: string | null | undefined): string {
 export function CurrentEfficiencyCard({
   epcRating,
   sapPoints,
+  provenanceSignal = "none",
+  lodgedEpcRating,
+  lodgedSapPoints,
   originalSapPoints,
 }: CurrentEfficiencyCardProps) {
   const epcHex = getEpcHex(epcRating);
-  const lodgedLetter = originalSapPoints ? sapToEpc(originalSapPoints) : null;
-  const showLodgedBadge = lodgedLetter !== null && lodgedLetter !== epcRating;
+  // New-approach: show the lodged certificate whenever the property was
+  // re-modelled (effective diverged from lodged), even within the same band.
+  // Legacy: fall back to the row's originalSapPoints, only when the band differs.
+  const legacyLodgedLetter = originalSapPoints ? sapToEpc(originalSapPoints) : null;
+  const remodelled = provenanceSignal === "remodelled";
+  const lodgedLetter = remodelled
+    ? lodgedEpcRating ?? null
+    : legacyLodgedLetter !== epcRating
+      ? legacyLodgedLetter
+      : null;
+  const lodgedBadgeSap = remodelled ? lodgedSapPoints : originalSapPoints;
+  const showLodgedBadge = lodgedLetter !== null;
   const lodgedHex = getEpcHex(lodgedLetter);
 
   return (
@@ -87,9 +103,9 @@ export function CurrentEfficiencyCard({
             >
               {lodgedLetter}
             </span>
-            {originalSapPoints != null && (
+            {lodgedBadgeSap != null && (
               <span className="text-xs font-bold text-gray-400">
-                / {Math.round(originalSapPoints)}
+                / {Math.round(lodgedBadgeSap)}
               </span>
             )}
           </div>

src/app/db/schema/property.ts

@@ -38,6 +38,14 @@ export interface PropertyMeta {
   currentEpcRating: string;
   currentSapPoints: number;
   originalSapPoints: number | null;
+  // Provenance of the displayed "current" figures (see ADR-0002 / provenance.ts).
+  // "estimated" = no certificate (predicted); "remodelled" = lodged but
+  // rebaselined; "none" = lodged == effective, or legacy.
+  provenanceSignal: "estimated" | "remodelled" | "none";
+  // Lodged (gov-register) headline, only when a real certificate exists; feeds
+  // the "Lodged EPC" badge alongside the effective "current".
+  lodgedEpcRating: string | null;
+  lodgedSapPoints: number | null;
   updatedAt: string;
   currentValuation: number | null;
   detailsEpc: {
@@ -378,6 +386,13 @@ export interface PropertyWithRelations extends Record<string, unknown> {
   // New fields
   landlordPropertyId: string | null;
   originalSapPoints: number | null;
+  // Effective "current" (ADR-0002) is in currentEpcRating/currentSapPoints; these
+  // carry the separate lodged certificate + the default plan's post-retrofit
+  // rating + the provenance signal that drives the "Predicted" pill.
+  lodgedEpcRating: string | null;
+  postEpcRating: string | null;
+  postSapPoints: number | null;
+  provenanceSignal: "estimated" | "remodelled" | "none";
   epcLodgementDate: string | null;
   epcIsExpired: boolean | null;
   // Optional columns (hidden by default)

src/app/portfolio/[slug]/(portfolio)/reporting/databaseFunctions.ts

@@ -9,8 +9,8 @@ import {
   energyConsumptionSql,
   estimatedSql,
   isExpiredSql,
-  sapSql,
-  epcBandSql,
+  effectiveSapSql,
+  effectiveEpcBandSql,
 } from "@/lib/services/epcSources";
 
 import type {
@@ -38,7 +38,7 @@ export async function getAverages(
 ): Promise<AverageMetrics> {
   const result = await db.execute<AverageMetrics>(sql`
     SELECT
-      AVG(${sapSql})::float AS avg_sap,
+      AVG(${effectiveSapSql})::float AS avg_sap,
       AVG(${carbonSql(sql`e`)})::float AS avg_carbon,
       AVG(${billsSql(sql`e`)})::float AS avg_bills,
       AVG(${energyConsumptionSql(sql`e`)})::float AS avg_energy_consumption
@@ -99,7 +99,7 @@ export async function getCountByEpcBand(
     SELECT *
     FROM (
       SELECT
-        COALESCE((${epcBandSql})::text, 'Unknown') AS epc,
+        COALESCE((${effectiveEpcBandSql})::text, 'Unknown') AS epc,
         COUNT(*) FILTER (
           WHERE ${estimatedSql(sql`e`)} = false
         )::int AS actual,

src/app/portfolio/[slug]/building-passport/[propertyId]/assessment/page.tsx

@@ -238,6 +238,9 @@ export default async function PreAssessmentReport(props: {
         <CurrentEfficiencyCard
           epcRating={propertyMeta.currentEpcRating ?? null}
           sapPoints={propertyMeta.currentSapPoints ?? 0}
+          provenanceSignal={propertyMeta.provenanceSignal}
+          lodgedEpcRating={propertyMeta.lodgedEpcRating}
+          lodgedSapPoints={propertyMeta.lodgedSapPoints}
           originalSapPoints={propertyMeta.originalSapPoints}
         />
 

src/app/portfolio/[slug]/building-passport/[propertyId]/page.tsx

@@ -86,6 +86,9 @@ export default async function BuildingPassportHome(props: {
         <CurrentEfficiencyCard
           epcRating={propertyMeta.currentEpcRating ?? null}
           sapPoints={propertyMeta.currentSapPoints ?? 0}
+          provenanceSignal={propertyMeta.provenanceSignal}
+          lodgedEpcRating={propertyMeta.lodgedEpcRating}
+          lodgedSapPoints={propertyMeta.lodgedSapPoints}
           originalSapPoints={propertyMeta.originalSapPoints}
         />
 

src/app/portfolio/[slug]/components/PropertyFilters.tsx

@@ -16,6 +16,7 @@ import {
   TENURE_OPTIONS,
   YEAR_BUILT_OPTIONS,
   MAINFUEL_OPTIONS,
+  PROVENANCE_OPTIONS,
 } from "@/app/utils/propertyFilters";
 
 /* -----------------------------------------------------------------------
@@ -33,6 +34,7 @@ const FIELD_OPTIONS: { value: FilterField; label: string }[] = [
   { value: "builtForm",     label: "Built Form" },
   { value: "tenure",        label: "Tenure" },
   { value: "yearBuilt",     label: "Year Built" },
+  { value: "provenance",    label: "Provenance" },
   { value: "floorArea",     label: "Floor Area (m²)" },
   { value: "co2Emissions",  label: "CO₂ Emissions (kg/m²/yr)" },
   { value: "mainfuel",      label: "Main Fuel" },
@@ -74,6 +76,7 @@ const ENUM_FIELD_OPTIONS: Record<string, EnumOption[]> = {
   builtForm:    BUILT_FORM_OPTIONS,
   tenure:       TENURE_OPTIONS,
   yearBuilt:    YEAR_BUILT_OPTIONS,
+  provenance:   PROVENANCE_OPTIONS,
   mainfuel:     MAINFUEL_OPTIONS,
 };
 

src/app/portfolio/[slug]/components/expectedEpc.test.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,20 @@
+import { describe, expect, it } from "vitest";
+import { expectedEpcRating } from "./expectedEpc";
+
+describe("expectedEpcRating", () => {
+  it("uses the default plan's post EPC rating when present", () => {
+    expect(
+      expectedEpcRating({ postEpcRating: "C", postSapPoints: 71.4 }),
+    ).toBe("C");
+  });
+
+  it("derives the band from post SAP when the plan has no stored rating", () => {
+    expect(
+      expectedEpcRating({ postEpcRating: null, postSapPoints: 64 }),
+    ).toBe("D");
+  });
+
+  it("is blank when the property has no default plan", () => {
+    expect(expectedEpcRating(null)).toBe("");
+  });
+});

src/app/portfolio/[slug]/components/expectedEpc.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,19 @@
+import { sapToEpc } from "@/app/utils";
+
+/**
+ * The portfolio "Expected EPC" — the post-retrofit band of a property's default
+ * plan. The plan engine already models interactions, SAP 10 and the effective
+ * baseline, so we trust `plan.post_epc_rating` (falling back to deriving it from
+ * `post_sap_points`) rather than adding raw recommendation SAP onto the current
+ * score, which double-counts across plans and overshoots. See ADR-0002 and the
+ * grilling notes for property 732385 (read A, should read C).
+ *
+ * Returns "" when there is no default plan — the column renders blank, not the
+ * current rating.
+ */
+export function expectedEpcRating(
+  plan: { postEpcRating: string | null; postSapPoints: number | null } | null,
+): string {
+  if (!plan) return "";
+  return plan.postEpcRating ?? sapToEpc(plan.postSapPoints);
+}

src/app/portfolio/[slug]/components/propertyTableColumns.tsx

@@ -15,6 +15,7 @@ import { FunnelIcon } from "@heroicons/react/24/outline";
 import { formatNumber, getEpcColorClass, sapToEpc } from "@/app/utils";
 import { cn } from "@/lib/utils";
 import { PropertyWithRelations } from "@/app/db/schema/property";
+import { expectedEpcRating } from "./expectedEpc";
 import { X } from "lucide-react";
 import {
   EnumOption,
@@ -72,6 +73,20 @@ const EpcLetterBubble = ({ letter }: { letter: string }) => {
   );
 };
 
+/**
+ * Marks a property whose EPC was estimated from nearby homes (no certificate) —
+ * the "trust this less" signal. Re-modelled properties aren't marked (the
+ * Lodged-EPC column differing from Current already conveys that). See ADR-0002.
+ */
+const PredictedPill = () => (
+  <span
+    className="inline-flex items-center rounded-full bg-amber-100 px-1.5 py-0.5 text-[9px] font-bold uppercase tracking-wide text-amber-700 border border-amber-200"
+    title="Estimated from nearby homes — no EPC certificate on record"
+  >
+    Predicted
+  </span>
+);
+
 /* -----------------------------------------------------------------------
    Column header with dropdown filter
 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ */
@@ -229,19 +244,27 @@ const coreColumns: ColumnDef<PropertyWithRelations>[] = [
       </div>
     ),
     cell: ({ row }) => (
-      <div className="text-gray-700 font-medium flex justify-center">
+      <div className="text-gray-700 font-medium flex items-center justify-center gap-1.5">
         <EpcLetterBubble letter={row.original.currentEpcRating || ""} />
+        {row.original.provenanceSignal === "estimated" && <PredictedPill />}
       </div>
     ),
   },
   {
-    accessorKey: "originalSapPoints",
+    accessorKey: "lodgedEpcRating",
     header: () => (
       <div className="flex justify-center text-xs">Lodged EPC</div>
     ),
     cell: ({ row }) => {
-      const originalSap = row.original.originalSapPoints;
-      const letter = originalSap ? sapToEpc(originalSap) : null;
+      // Effective is the "current"; this column shows the real lodged
+      // certificate, blank when there is none (predicted properties). For legacy
+      // rows the query returns the row's rating; new-approach returns lodged or
+      // NULL. originalSapPoints remains a fallback for legacy rows lacking a band.
+      const letter =
+        row.original.lodgedEpcRating ??
+        (row.original.originalSapPoints
+          ? sapToEpc(row.original.originalSapPoints)
+          : null);
       return (
         <div className="text-gray-700 font-medium flex justify-center">
           <EpcLetterBubble letter={letter || ""} />
@@ -255,21 +278,17 @@ const coreColumns: ColumnDef<PropertyWithRelations>[] = [
       <div className="flex justify-center text-xs">Expected EPC</div>
     ),
     cell: ({ row }) => {
-      const currentSapPoints = row.original.currentSapPoints || 0;
-      const expectedSapPoints = row.original.totalRecommendationSapPoints || 0;
-
-      if (currentSapPoints + expectedSapPoints === 0) {
-        return (
-          <div className="text-gray-700 font-medium flex justify-center">
-            <EpcLetterBubble letter="" />
-          </div>
-        );
-      }
-      const expectedEpc = sapToEpc(currentSapPoints + expectedSapPoints);
-
+      const expectedEpc = expectedEpcRating(
+        row.original.postEpcRating != null || row.original.postSapPoints != null
+          ? {
+              postEpcRating: row.original.postEpcRating,
+              postSapPoints: row.original.postSapPoints,
+            }
+          : null,
+      );
       return (
         <div className="text-gray-700 font-medium flex justify-center">
-          <EpcLetterBubble letter={expectedEpc || ""} />
+          <EpcLetterBubble letter={expectedEpc} />
         </div>
       );
     },

src/app/portfolio/[slug]/utils.ts

@@ -26,8 +26,11 @@ import {
   lodgementDateSql,
   isExpiredSql,
   mainfuelSql,
-  sapSql,
-  epcBandSql,
+  effectiveSapSql,
+  effectiveEpcBandSql,
+  lodgedEpcBandSql,
+  lodgedSapSql,
+  provenanceSignalSql,
 } from "@/lib/services/epcSources";
 import {
   FilterGroups,
@@ -37,6 +40,7 @@ import {
   TENURE_OPTIONS,
   YEAR_BUILT_OPTIONS,
   MAINFUEL_OPTIONS,
+  PROVENANCE_OPTIONS,
   EnumOption,
 } from "@/app/utils/propertyFilters";
 import { EPC_TO_SAP_MIN, EPC_TO_SAP_MAX } from "@/app/utils/epc";
@@ -46,6 +50,7 @@ const ENUM_FIELD_DB_OPTIONS: Record<string, EnumOption[]> = {
   builtForm:    BUILT_FORM_OPTIONS,
   tenure:       TENURE_OPTIONS,
   yearBuilt:    YEAR_BUILT_OPTIONS,
+  provenance:   PROVENANCE_OPTIONS,
   mainfuel:     MAINFUEL_OPTIONS,
 };
 
@@ -523,10 +528,11 @@ function buildConditionSql(filter: PropertyFilter): ReturnType<typeof sql> | nul
       return null;
 
     case "currentEpc":
-      return buildEpcSapCondition(sql`p.current_sap_points`, filter.operator, filter.value);
+      // "Current" is the effective baseline (ADR-0002), not the null row column.
+      return buildEpcSapCondition(effectiveSapSql, filter.operator, filter.value);
 
     case "lodgedEpc":
-      return buildEpcSapCondition(sql`p.original_sap_points`, filter.operator, filter.value);
+      return buildEpcSapCondition(lodgedSapSql, filter.operator, filter.value);
 
     case "expectedEpc": {
       if (filter.operator === "epc_at_least") {
@@ -574,6 +580,7 @@ function buildConditionSql(filter: PropertyFilter): ReturnType<typeof sql> | nul
     case "builtForm":
     case "tenure":
     case "yearBuilt":
+    case "provenance":
     case "mainfuel": {
       if (filter.operator !== "enum_one_of") return null;
 
@@ -591,6 +598,7 @@ function buildConditionSql(filter: PropertyFilter): ReturnType<typeof sql> | nul
         builtForm:    sql`p.built_form`,
         tenure:       sql`p.tenure`,
         yearBuilt:    sql`p.year_built`,
+        provenance:   provenanceSignalSql,
         // GAP: new-approach properties have no main-fuel string → NULL, so they
         // only match the "no value" filter branch. See epcSources.ts.
         mainfuel:     mainfuelSql(sql`epc`),
@@ -718,15 +726,20 @@ export async function getProperties(
       p.postcode AS postcode,
       p.status AS status,
       p.creation_status AS "creationStatus",
-      -- Current EPC/SAP: new-approach properties have null headline columns on
-      -- the property row, so source from the lodged baseline. The "Expected EPC"
-      -- column is currentSapPoints + recommendation SAP, so this also fixes it.
-      ${epcBandSql} AS "currentEpcRating",
-      ${sapSql} AS "currentSapPoints",
-      -- property_targets is no longer read (the "Expected EPC" column derives
-      -- from currentSapPoints + recommendation SAP). Kept as NULL to preserve
-      -- the PropertyWithRelations shape.
+      -- "Current" is the effective (re-baselined) figure — the canonical current
+      -- per ADR-0002. The lodged certificate is a separate column. New-approach
+      -- properties have null headline columns on the property row, so both source
+      -- from property_baseline_performance.
+      ${effectiveEpcBandSql} AS "currentEpcRating",
+      ${effectiveSapSql} AS "currentSapPoints",
+      ${lodgedEpcBandSql} AS "lodgedEpcRating",
+      ${provenanceSignalSql} AS "provenanceSignal",
+      -- "Expected EPC" is the default plan's modelled post-retrofit rating, not
+      -- current + Σ recommendation SAP (which double-counts across plans and
+      -- overshoots). See expectedEpc.ts / ADR-0002.
       NULL AS "targetEpc",
+      pl.post_epc_rating AS "postEpcRating",
+      pl.post_sap_points AS "postSapPoints",
       pl.id AS "planId",
       -- funding_package is no longer read here (the proposals table fetches it
       -- separately). Kept as NULL to preserve the PropertyWithRelations shape.
@@ -749,7 +762,7 @@ export async function getProperties(
     -- LATERAL one-row lookups keep this query at "N properties × index probe"
     -- instead of hash-joining the multi-million-row plan/recommendation tables.
     LEFT JOIN LATERAL (
-      SELECT id, post_sap_points FROM plan
+      SELECT id, post_sap_points, post_epc_rating FROM plan
       WHERE property_id = p.id
         AND portfolio_id = p.portfolio_id
         AND is_default = true
@@ -768,6 +781,11 @@ export async function getProperties(
         COALESCE(SUM(estimated_cost), 0) AS cost
       FROM recommendation
       WHERE property_id = p.id
+        -- Scope to the default plan. property_id is the indexed access path, so
+        -- this only filters the property's own (tiny) rec set in memory — no
+        -- unindexed plan_id scan — while stopping the SUM double-counting a
+        -- measure once per plan when a property has several plans.
+        AND plan_id = pl.id
         AND "default" = true
         AND already_installed = false
     ) rec ON true

src/app/utils/propertyFilters.ts

@@ -10,6 +10,7 @@ export type FilterField =
   | "builtForm"
   | "tenure"
   | "yearBuilt"
+  | "provenance"
   | "floorArea"
   | "co2Emissions"
   | "mainfuel";
@@ -89,6 +90,14 @@ export const TENURE_OPTIONS: EnumOption[] = [
   { label: "Not Recorded",     dbValues: ["__null__"] },
 ];
 
+// Provenance signal (ADR-0002). dbValues are the raw signal strings emitted by
+// provenanceSignalSql / resolveProvenanceSignal.
+export const PROVENANCE_OPTIONS: EnumOption[] = [
+  { label: "Predicted",   dbValues: ["estimated"] },
+  { label: "Re-modelled", dbValues: ["remodelled"] },
+  { label: "Standard",    dbValues: ["none"] },
+];
+
 export const YEAR_BUILT_OPTIONS: EnumOption[] = [
   "1900","1930","1950","1967","1976","1983","1991","1996",
   "2003","2007","2008","2009","2010","2011","2012","2013",

src/lib/services/epcSources.ts

@@ -29,6 +29,7 @@
  */
 import { db } from "@/app/db/db";
 import { and, eq, sql } from "drizzle-orm";
+import { resolveProvenanceSignal, type ProvenanceSignal } from "./provenance";
 import {
   epcProperty,
   epcEnergyElement,
@@ -98,6 +99,44 @@ export const sapSql = sql`CASE WHEN ${isNewApproachSql} THEN bp.lodged_sap_score
 /** Baseline EPC band. New: lodged band from property_baseline_performance. Legacy: property.current_epc_rating. */
 export const epcBandSql = sql`CASE WHEN ${isNewApproachSql} THEN bp.lodged_epc_band ELSE p.current_epc_rating END`;
 
+/**
+ * Effective (re-baselined) SAP score / EPC band — the canonical "current" for
+ * display and reporting (ADR-0002). New: bp.effective_*; legacy: the property
+ * row. These replaced the lodged `sapSql`/`epcBandSql` above as the table +
+ * reporting source; those lodged fragments are intentionally retained (unused
+ * for now) for a possible future register-fidelity reporting view (ADR-0002).
+ * The "Lodged EPC" column itself uses the source-gated `lodgedEpcBandSql` below.
+ */
+export const effectiveSapSql = sql`CASE WHEN ${isNewApproachSql} THEN bp.effective_sap_score ELSE p.current_sap_points END`;
+export const effectiveEpcBandSql = sql`CASE WHEN ${isNewApproachSql} THEN bp.effective_epc_band ELSE p.current_epc_rating END`;
+
+/**
+ * Lodged EPC band for the "Lodged EPC" column — only when a real certificate
+ * exists (`source = lodged`, i.e. the lodged epc_property row `epl`). A
+ * predicted property carries lodged_* (mirrored estimates) that must not
+ * surface, so it renders NULL. Legacy: derive from the property row's
+ * original_sap_points (handled in the column, kept as the row value here).
+ */
+export const lodgedEpcBandSql = sql`CASE WHEN ${isNewApproachSql} THEN (CASE WHEN epl.id IS NOT NULL THEN bp.lodged_epc_band ELSE NULL END) ELSE p.current_epc_rating END`;
+
+/** Lodged SAP score for the "Lodged EPC" filter — same source/gate as lodgedEpcBandSql. Legacy: the row's original_sap_points. */
+export const lodgedSapSql = sql`CASE WHEN ${isNewApproachSql} THEN (CASE WHEN epl.id IS NOT NULL THEN bp.lodged_sap_score ELSE NULL END) ELSE p.original_sap_points END`;
+
+/**
+ * Provenance signal for the portfolio table (mirrors resolveProvenanceSignal /
+ * provenance.ts). New-approach only; legacy → 'none'.
+ */
+export const provenanceSignalSql = sql`CASE
+  WHEN ${isNewApproachSql} THEN (
+    CASE
+      WHEN epp.id IS NOT NULL AND epl.id IS NULL THEN 'estimated'
+      WHEN epl.id IS NOT NULL AND bp.rebaseline_reason IS NOT NULL AND bp.rebaseline_reason <> 'none' THEN 'remodelled'
+      ELSE 'none'
+    END
+  )
+  ELSE 'none'
+END`;
+
 /**
  * Annual energy bill (£). New: sum of the individual cost columns on
  * property_baseline_performance (NULL when no baseline row exists, so it's
@@ -438,6 +477,57 @@ export async function resolvePropertyHeadline(
   };
 }
 
+/**
+ * Provenance signal + the lodged (gov-register) headline for the EPC card.
+ * `provenanceSignal` drives the "estimated"/"re-modelled" UI signals; the lodged
+ * band/SAP feed the "Lodged EPC" badge and are only meaningful when a real
+ * certificate exists (`source = lodged`). Legacy properties get `none` and null
+ * lodged figures — the card falls back to the row's `originalSapPoints`.
+ * See provenance.ts (pure precedence), CONTEXT.md and ADR-0002.
+ */
+export async function resolveProvenance(
+  propertyId: bigint,
+  updatedAt: Date | string | null | undefined,
+): Promise<{
+  provenanceSignal: ProvenanceSignal;
+  lodgedEpcRating: string | null;
+  lodgedSapPoints: number | null;
+}> {
+  if (!isNewApproach(updatedAt)) {
+    return { provenanceSignal: "none", lodgedEpcRating: null, lodgedSapPoints: null };
+  }
+  const [lodged, predicted, baseline] = await Promise.all([
+    db.query.epcProperty.findFirst({
+      columns: { id: true },
+      where: and(eq(epcProperty.propertyId, propertyId), eq(epcProperty.source, "lodged")),
+    }),
+    db.query.epcProperty.findFirst({
+      columns: { id: true },
+      where: and(eq(epcProperty.propertyId, propertyId), eq(epcProperty.source, "predicted")),
+    }),
+    db.query.propertyBaselinePerformance.findFirst({
+      columns: { rebaselineReason: true, lodgedSapScore: true, lodgedEpcBand: true },
+      where: eq(propertyBaselinePerformance.propertyId, propertyId),
+    }),
+  ]);
+
+  const hasLodgedEpc = !!lodged;
+  const provenanceSignal = resolveProvenanceSignal({
+    isNewApproach: true,
+    hasLodgedEpc,
+    hasPredictedEpc: !!predicted,
+    rebaselineReason: baseline?.rebaselineReason,
+  });
+
+  // Lodged figures only when a real certificate exists — a predicted property
+  // still carries lodged_* (mirrored estimates) which must not surface.
+  return {
+    provenanceSignal,
+    lodgedEpcRating: hasLodgedEpc ? baseline?.lodgedEpcBand ?? null : null,
+    lodgedSapPoints: hasLodgedEpc ? baseline?.lodgedSapScore ?? null : null,
+  };
+}
+
 /** The minimal EPC meta the `/api/property-meta` route embeds as `detailsEpc`. */
 export interface DetailsEpcMeta {
   currentEnergyDemand: number | null;
@@ -654,16 +744,20 @@ export async function resolvePropertyMeta(propertyId: string) {
   if (!propertyMeta) return null;
 
   const newApproach = isNewApproach(propertyMeta.updatedAt);
-  const [detailsEpc, headline, descriptors] = await Promise.all([
+  const [detailsEpc, headline, descriptors, provenance] = await Promise.all([
     resolveDetailsEpcMeta(propertyMeta.id, propertyMeta.updatedAt),
     resolvePropertyHeadline(propertyMeta.id, propertyMeta.updatedAt),
     newApproach
       ? resolvePropertyDescriptors(propertyMeta.id)
       : Promise.resolve(null),
+    resolveProvenance(propertyMeta.id, propertyMeta.updatedAt),
   ]);
 
   return {
     ...propertyMeta,
+    provenanceSignal: provenance.provenanceSignal,
+    lodgedEpcRating: provenance.lodgedEpcRating,
+    lodgedSapPoints: provenance.lodgedSapPoints,
     propertyType: descriptors?.propertyType ?? propertyMeta.propertyType,
     builtForm: descriptors?.builtForm ?? propertyMeta.builtForm,
     yearBuilt: descriptors?.yearBuilt ?? propertyMeta.yearBuilt,

src/lib/services/provenance.test.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,59 @@
+import { describe, expect, it } from "vitest";
+import { resolveProvenanceSignal } from "./provenance";
+
+describe("resolveProvenanceSignal", () => {
+  it("flags a predicted-only property as estimated, even when rebaselined", () => {
+    expect(
+      resolveProvenanceSignal({
+        isNewApproach: true,
+        hasLodgedEpc: false,
+        hasPredictedEpc: true,
+        rebaselineReason: "pre_sap10",
+      }),
+    ).toBe("estimated");
+  });
+
+  it("flags a lodged, rebaselined property as remodelled", () => {
+    expect(
+      resolveProvenanceSignal({
+        isNewApproach: true,
+        hasLodgedEpc: true,
+        hasPredictedEpc: false,
+        rebaselineReason: "pre_sap10",
+      }),
+    ).toBe("remodelled");
+  });
+
+  it("returns none for a lodged property that was not rebaselined", () => {
+    expect(
+      resolveProvenanceSignal({
+        isNewApproach: true,
+        hasLodgedEpc: true,
+        hasPredictedEpc: false,
+        rebaselineReason: "none",
+      }),
+    ).toBe("none");
+  });
+
+  it("prefers the real certificate when both lodged and predicted EPCs exist", () => {
+    expect(
+      resolveProvenanceSignal({
+        isNewApproach: true,
+        hasLodgedEpc: true,
+        hasPredictedEpc: true,
+        rebaselineReason: "pre_sap10",
+      }),
+    ).toBe("remodelled");
+  });
+
+  it("returns none for legacy properties regardless of EPC inputs", () => {
+    expect(
+      resolveProvenanceSignal({
+        isNewApproach: false,
+        hasLodgedEpc: false,
+        hasPredictedEpc: true,
+        rebaselineReason: "pre_sap10",
+      }),
+    ).toBe("none");
+  });
+});

src/lib/services/provenance.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,36 @@
+/**
+ * Provenance signal — what the user is told about an EPC's trustworthiness.
+ * See CONTEXT.md ("EPC provenance", "Provenance signal") and ADR-0002.
+ *
+ * Pure decision over a property's EPC provenance (`epc_property.source`) and its
+ * Rebaseline (`property_baseline_performance.rebaseline_reason`). The DB-reading
+ * resolver gathers the inputs; this function owns the precedence.
+ */
+export type ProvenanceSignal = "estimated" | "remodelled" | "none";
+
+export function resolveProvenanceSignal(input: {
+  isNewApproach: boolean;
+  hasLodgedEpc: boolean;
+  hasPredictedEpc: boolean;
+  rebaselineReason: string | null | undefined;
+}): ProvenanceSignal {
+  // Legacy (pre-cutoff) properties have no effective/lodged split and no
+  // provenance concept — they read the property row directly.
+  if (!input.isNewApproach) {
+    return "none";
+  }
+  // No EPC certificate exists — the picture was estimated from nearby homes.
+  // Dominant: wins even when the baseline was also rebaselined.
+  if (input.hasPredictedEpc && !input.hasLodgedEpc) {
+    return "estimated";
+  }
+  // A real certificate exists but the modelling baseline diverged from it.
+  if (
+    input.hasLodgedEpc &&
+    input.rebaselineReason != null &&
+    input.rebaselineReason !== "none"
+  ) {
+    return "remodelled";
+  }
+  return "none";
+}