diff --git a/CONTEXT.md b/CONTEXT.md
index c2073354..cdd69ab7 100644
--- a/CONTEXT.md
+++ b/CONTEXT.md
@@ -124,6 +124,14 @@ _Avoid_: current performance, adjusted performance
 The act of substituting a corrected set of performance metrics in place of the Lodged values. Recorded on `property_baseline_performance` with a `rebaseline_reason` enum value: `none`, `pre_sap10`, `physical_state_changed`, or `both`.
 _Avoid_: override, adjustment, correction
 
+**EPC provenance** (`epc_property.source`):
+Whether a property's EPC picture is a real certificate or a gap-fill. `lodged` = a real public/landlord EPC exists; `predicted` = no certificate, so the EPC was estimated from nearby properties (EPC Prediction gap-fill). Independent of Rebaseline: a `lodged` property may still be rebaselined, and a `predicted` property still carries Lodged-performance figures (mirrored estimates), so the presence of `lodged_*` columns does **not** imply a real certificate — only `source = lodged` does.
+_Avoid_: estimated EPC (reserve "estimated" for the UI signal), source EPC
+
+**Provenance signal** (UI):
+What the user is told about an EPC's trustworthiness, derived from EPC provenance and Rebaseline together: **Estimated** (`source = predicted` — dominant; "estimated based on nearby homes") › **Re-modelled** (`source = lodged AND rebaseline_reason != none` — effective diverged from the lodged certificate under SAP 10) › **none** (`source = lodged AND rebaseline_reason = none` — effective equals lodged). Estimated always wins when both could apply.
+_Avoid_: estimation notification, banner (those are component names)
+
 ## Example dialogue
 
 > **Dev:** "If the **Combiner** finishes but the user hasn't clicked Finalise, what does the user see?"
@@ -136,5 +144,6 @@ _Avoid_: override, adjustment, correction
 
 ## Flagged ambiguities
 
+- The UI surfaces labelled **"Current EPC"** and **"Current Efficiency State"** (property table, building-passport card) show **Effective performance**, not Lodged — despite the glossary advising against "current performance" for Effective. The label is a product choice ("current" = the property's true present-day modelled state); the underlying datum is still **Effective performance**. The **"Lodged EPC"** column/badge is the only surface showing **Lodged performance**, and only when a real certificate exists (`source = lodged`).
 - "Upload" is used in the codebase to mean both the file-on-S3 and the BulkUpload row. We standardise on **BulkUpload** for the row; the file is just "the source file."
 - "Onboarding" appears in some route paths (`bulk_onboarding_inputs/...`) but isn't part of this glossary — we use **BulkUpload** end-to-end.