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0933f05173
"Homes Without an EPC" and "Expired EPCs" were both derived from estimatedSql,
which asks "was this picture gap-filled?". That conflates two different questions:
provenance (was it modelled?) and coverage (does a certificate exist?).
They used to agree, because a gap-fill implied no certificate. Model ADR-0054 ends
that: the gov EPC API only serves certs registered since 2012, so a pre-2012
dwelling is gap-filled even though a real, stale certificate exists — and gets the
new source='expired'. On portfolio 824, 375 of the 403 "without an EPC" homes have
exactly that: a real certificate, just an out-of-date one. A different, and far more
actionable, problem than never having been certified.
Two defects fell out of the same conflation:
- Every query matched source='predicted' literally, and `source` is plain text
with no enum or CHECK. An 'expired' row matches neither the lodged nor the
predicted alias, so the home would have read as having a VALID CURRENT cert —
silently gone from both cards, no Estimated badge, nothing to catch it.
- isExpiredSql read epl.registration_date alone, but 714 of 824's 4,873 lodged
certs carry only inspection_date. All 714 counted as current; 170 are in fact
>10 years old. lodgementDateSql already coalesced the two; expiry didn't.
The cards now partition on coverage: withoutEpcSql = no lodged AND no historical
record; isExpiredSql = a cert of either kind, out of date. estimatedSql keeps its
own meaning and spans the whole predicted slot, so an expired home is estimated AND
has an EPC — both true. The `AND estimated = false` guard is gone from the Expired
card: an expired home IS estimated, so it excluded the very homes being counted.
Legacy portfolios are untouched (632: 8/1662 before and after). 824 moves to
913 → 1,083 expired immediately (the inspection_date fix), then to 25 / 1,461 once
Model writes expired rows. Safe to deploy BEFORE Model — the predicates just find
none. The reverse was not safe, which is why this goes first.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
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