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65 commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar
cf7c2e017d feat(modelling): ASHP decommission cost by existing system
Slice 2 of ADR-0025 costing. _decommission maps the existing system to its
Southern Housing line: gas/oil flat 720, LPG 960 (tank+fuel removal),
electric-storage 570/840 by property-size band. Unmapped systems raise for
now -- the no-system/electric-other/other fallbacks land in the next slice.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-06 20:36:12 +00:00
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar
d23b84209d feat(modelling): Products.ashp_bundle_cost composite ASHP cost (tracer)
First slice of the per-dwelling ASHP bundle costing (ADR-0025). Products is
the rich catalogue collection over Product, owning the catalogue math: given
a typed AshpCostInputs it sums the applicable Southern Housing rate lines
(decommission + heat-pump band + fixed cylinder + full wet distribution) into
a Cost with the separate 25% ASHP contingency. Pure -- no EpcPropertyData or
calculator. Pinned exact (1e-9) against the real rate sheet. Reuse branch,
decommission variants, fallbacks, band edges and radiator clamp follow.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-06 20:32:54 +00:00
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar
9f17a27766 feat(modelling): ASHP overlay resets water_heating_code to the HP end-state
The ASHP bundle is a fixed whole-system end-state (confirmed: always the same
contractor cylinder), so the hot-water arrangement is fixed too. The overlay now
sets water_heating_code=901 ("from main system") absolutely, so a combi (909/611)
or electric (903/908) before is reset to HW-from-the-heat-pump — previously the
overlay relied on the before already lodging 901 (true for boiler-1, not in
general). No-op for the boiler-1 pin (stays 1e-4). Cascade pins for combi /
electric-with-cylinder befores await example certs. ADR-0024.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-06 17:18:58 +00:00
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar
0f89845321 feat(modelling): wire the ASHP bundle into the candidate pool
recommend_heating now receives planning_restrictions in the orchestrator (the
ASHP planning gate); the ASHP bundle joins the free candidate pool for every
house/bungalow. Catalogue + contingency (legacy 0.25) gain air_source_heat_pump;
report.py _triggers_for explains the ASHP trigger; the harness forcing test
covers it. Integration tests seed an air_source_heat_pump MaterialRow (ASHP
fires on every house, the broadest trigger yet). NB the optimiser correctly does
NOT select ASHP for an EPC-band goal — gas->electric does not improve the SAP
cost-rating; ASHP is a CO2/PE measure, selectable once non-EPC goals land. ASHP
bundle COMPLETE (S5-S7). ADR-0024.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-06 17:12:07 +00:00
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar
a1fc697d93 test(modelling): ASHP before/after cascade pin (001431) at 1e-4
A typical mains-gas combi house re-lodged as an air-source heat pump closes at
1e-4 (gas-boiler 1 example from the technical specialist). Closes one named gap
the pin surfaced: a whole-system replacement to a PCDB-indexed system left the
old Table 4a sap_main_heating_code (104) beside the new heat-pump index, and the
stale code won the calculator's efficiency dispatch (hot water billed at boiler
not HP efficiency, ΔSAP 3.98). _fold_heating now enforces the mutual exclusion
of the two efficiency anchors (setting an index clears the SAP code and vice
versa). Also fixed a pre-existing pyright annotation in the lighting applicator
test. ADR-0024.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-06 17:01:40 +00:00
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar
a9da21c4b6 feat(modelling): recommend_heating offers the ASHP bundle
Adds the air-source heat-pump Option to the competing "Heating & Hot Water"
bundles. Its overlay is the absolute heat-pump end-state (fixed representative
PCDB index 101413 + category 4 + control 2210 + HWP cylinder + single meter +
off mains gas), pinned against the relodged after-cert next slice. Eligibility
is physical/planning only (ADR-0024, research-grounded): any non-flat
house/bungalow, not listed/heritage (PlanningRestrictions.blocks_internal —
conservation is offered with a caveat, not excluded), not already a heat pump;
floor area / built form / fuel / fabric are deliberately not gates. recommend_
heating gains a restrictions param (defaulted). An already-HHR electric house
now correctly gets ASHP as a better end-state.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-06 16:56:00 +00:00
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar
b55ab3727f feat(modelling): wire the HHR storage bundle into the candidate pool
recommend_heating joins the free candidate pool in _candidate_recommendations;
the HHR storage bundle reaches the optimised package for an electric/off-gas
dwelling. Catalogue + contingency (legacy 0.10) gain
high_heat_retention_storage_heaters; report.py _triggers_for explains the
heating trigger (electric/off-gas main); the harness _GENERATOR_MEASURE_TYPES
forcing test covers it. ASHP + boiler bundles still to come. ADR-0024.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-05 19:22:50 +00:00
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar
b3badc9b10 test(modelling): HHRSH before/after cascade pins (001431) at 1e-4
The same absolute-target HHR overlay reproduces the common relodged after from
two different base systems (existing electric storage; "no system present"
electric) — proving the bundle is a true whole-system end-state. Closes one
named gap the pin surfaced: the relodged HHR cylinder lodges
cylinder_thermostat='Y', so HeatingOverlay + _fold_heating + the HHRSH overlay
gain cylinder_thermostat (ΔSAP 0.065 -> <1e-4). ADR-0024.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-05 19:09:23 +00:00
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar
b883e75da8 feat(modelling): recommend_heating offers the HHR storage bundle
The heating Recommendation Generator (HHRSH first). Emits one "Heating & Hot
Water" Recommendation whose competing whole-system bundles the Optimiser picks
from; this slice builds the high-heat-retention storage Option. Its overlay is
the absolute HHR end-state (Table 4a code 409 + control 2404 + dual off-peak
meter + off-peak electric cylinder), pinned against the relodged after-cert in
the next slice. Eligibility translates legacy is_high_heat_retention_valid to
structured predicates (electric or off-gas main, not already HHR/heat-pump).
mains_gas and the heat emitter are unchanged by the measure, so unset. ADR-0024.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-05 19:05:02 +00:00
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar
2f6a1e2479 feat(modelling): HeatingOverlay surface + _fold_heating (5-location fold)
The 5th EpcSimulation overlay surface and the deepest applicator fold yet: a
heating bundle is a whole-system replacement, so _fold_heating routes its
absolute-target fields across main_heating_details[0] (fuel/emitter/control +
sap_main_heating_code OR index+category), sap_heating (water_heating_* +
cylinder), the top-level EpcPropertyData (has_hot_water_cylinder), and
sap_energy_source (meter_type, mains_gas). ADR-0024.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-05 18:59:26 +00:00
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar
f7863f986d feat(modelling): wire the lighting generator into the candidate pool
Slice 4 of the lighting generator (ADR-0023): run recommend_lighting in
_candidate_recommendations (no planning gate). Price low_energy_lighting in the
offline catalogue + contingency table (0.26, the legacy rate); the
_GENERATOR_MEASURE_TYPES forcing test enforces both. A run_modelling test pins
the wiring end-to-end (an incandescent-lit dwelling gets the LED upgrade in the
optimised package).

Downstream updates, all because lighting now fires on any cert with non-LED
bulbs: report.py gains the low_energy_lighting trigger (the non-LED counts); the
two golden-cert report tests and the multi-measure integration test now expect
low_energy_lighting alongside the fabric measures (the sample/golden EPCs lodge
low-energy-unknown bulbs); first-run integration seeds a low_energy_lighting
MaterialRow.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-05 12:39:54 +00:00
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar
dbbfb8ea28 feat(modelling): recommend_lighting upgrades all non-LED bulbs to LED
Slice 2 of the lighting generator (ADR-0023): detect non-LED bulbs
(incandescent + CFL + low-energy-unknown > 0) and emit one "Lighting"
Recommendation whose single low_energy_lighting Option converts every bulb to
LED — the overlay sets led = total, the other three counts 0. Priced as a flat
per-bulb average x the non-LED count, contingency 0.26; the description names
"LED" while the measure_type stays MEASURE_MAP-aligned. None when already
all-LED or no bulb counts are lodged.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-05 12:23:27 +00:00
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar
139c90c885 feat(modelling): whole-dwelling LightingOverlay surface on EpcSimulation
Slice 1 of the lighting generator (ADR-0023): the first whole-dwelling,
top-level overlay surface. LightingOverlay carries the four fixed-lighting
bulb-count fields by their exact EPC names (all Optional, absolute counts) +
EpcSimulation.lighting. The applicator's _fold_lighting writes the non-None
counts directly onto the result EpcPropertyData by name (setattr) — simpler
than ventilation's nested fold since the counts live top-level. Baseline
unmutated; pyright strict clean.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-05 12:21:19 +00:00
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar
07dbaa5361 feat(modelling): detect single-glazing code 15 + glazing before/after pins
With the mapper now in main, cert 001431 parses: it lodges four single-glazed
windows — codes 1 ("Single") and 15 ("single glazing, known data", a single
pane with manufacturer U/g). The generator only detected code 1, so it missed
two panes. Detect {1, 15}; set the secondary target to code 11 ("Secondary
glazing - Normal emissivity", what the cert re-lodges; score-neutral vs 7 but
exact).

A deterministic green pin proves the overlay reproduces the after's 14 windows
exactly. The full-SAP before->after pins are xfail(strict) tripwires: the
overlay nails the windows, but the measure also re-lodges percent_draughtproofed
84->100 (sealed units draught-proof the replaced openings) plus a ~0.4 SAP
fabric residual the overlay doesn't model yet — a glazing-measure coupling to
close later.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-05 11:23:57 +00:00
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar
36f74360a5 feat(modelling): explicit park-home guard in the solid-wall generator
ADR-0019 warns that wall_construction code 8 is Park home (PH), NOT system-
built. It was already excluded (8 isn't in the constructable-options map), but
only implicitly. Add an explicit early-return + named constant so a park home
can never be mis-keyed as system-built, with a pin as the tripwire. A park
home's proprietary panel is never EWI/IWI-suitable.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-05 10:49:50 +00:00
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar
f33bb9d52d feat(modelling): room-in-roof safety guard defers the roof generator
A room-in-roof carries its insulation on its own sloping/stud/gable surfaces
(RdSAP 10 §3.10, Table 17/18), which the roof overlay's flat
roof_insulation_thickness bump cannot model. Without a guard a RR with an
uninsulated loft fell through to the loft fallback and mis-recommended 300 mm
loft insulation. Return None when the main part lodges a sap_room_in_roof,
deferring until a dedicated RR branch lands (ADR-0021).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-05 10:06:08 +00:00
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar
456a81df0a feat(modelling): wire glazing generator into the candidate pool
Slice 4 of the glazing generator (ADR-0022): run recommend_glazing in
_candidate_recommendations, threading the Property's PlanningRestrictions so a
protected dwelling is offered secondary glazing instead of double (mirrors
recommend_solid_wall). Price both Measure Types in the offline catalogue
(double £600/window, secondary £510 -- the legacy 0.85x scaling) and the
contingency table (0.15, the legacy windows_glazing rate); the
_GENERATOR_MEASURE_TYPES forcing test enforces both entries exist.

run_modelling tests pin the wiring end-to-end on an all-single-glazed dwelling:
double when unrestricted, secondary when listed. The first-run integration test
seeds a double_glazing Product because its lodged EPC has a single-glazed
window. _single_glazed_epc() deep-copies build_epc() (which shares its window
objects) so the mutation can't leak into other tests' baselines.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-05 09:29:09 +00:00
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar
276dd1a500 feat(modelling): planning protection picks secondary over double glazing
Slice 3 of the glazing generator (ADR-0022): a conservation/listed/heritage
protection (PlanningRestrictions.blocks_external) hard-picks secondary_glazing
instead of double_glazing -- an internal second pane, since the external units
can't be replaced on a protected building. Each single-glazed window upgrades
to the secondary target pinned from cert 001431 (glazing_type=7, u_value=2.90,
solar_transmittance=0.85 -- the outer single pane still drives solar gain).

The before/after cascade pins for both measures remain deferred behind the
glazing-label mapper coverage (owned by another agent).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-05 09:18:17 +00:00
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar
8d081cb9d6 feat(modelling): recommend_glazing upgrades single-glazed windows to double
The glazing Recommendation Generator (ADR-0022): detect single-glazed
windows (SAP10.2 Table U2 code 1) and emit one "Windows" Recommendation whose
single Option rewrites every single-glazed window to the double-glazing target
pinned from cert 001431's before->after (glazing_type=5, u_value=1.40,
solar_transmittance=0.72). The overlay writes the per-window U/g into
WindowTransmissionDetails because the calculator consumes those directly.
Priced as a flat per-window average x count. No single-glazed windows -> None.

Planning gate (-> secondary) and the before/after cascade pins land next; the
pins are blocked on glazing-label mapper coverage (owned by another agent).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-05 09:17:09 +00:00
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar
275a521071 feat(modelling): per-window overlay surface on EpcSimulation
Slice 1 of the glazing generator (ADR-0022). `WindowOverlay` (all-optional
partial of one SapWindow) + `EpcSimulation.windows` keyed by sap_windows index.
The applicator folds it onto sap_windows[i]: glazing_type flat on the window,
u_value/solar_transmittance routed into its WindowTransmissionDetails (created
if absent) — the applicator's first nested write, because that's where the
calculator reads window heat loss and solar gain. Baseline left unmutated.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-04 22:57:02 +00:00
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar
1a807a4c4c feat(modelling): price sloping-ceiling + flat-roof measures in the catalogue
Slice 4 (ADR-0021). The roof dispatcher can now emit sloping_ceiling_insulation
and flat_roof_insulation, so wire both into contingencies and the sample
catalogue; the forcing-function test now asserts every generator measure type
is both priced and has a contingency rate, so an offline/live run over a
sloping or flat roof never dies on a missing entry.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-04 21:20:38 +00:00
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar
13b18ce9fb feat(modelling): roof dispatcher insulates a flat roof
Slice 3 (ADR-0021). The dispatcher gains a flat-roof branch: a "flat"
roof_construction_type with no lodged thickness (uninsulated → None on the
Elmhurst path) gets a single flat_roof_insulation Option whose overlay raises
roof_insulation_thickness to 200 mm — tested before the loft fallback so a flat
roof's None doesn't trip the loft trigger. Pinned against the Elmhurst
before→after cert at 1e-4. Golden cohort roof firing unchanged (none across 57).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-04 21:16:00 +00:00
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar
7d40cddf3b feat(modelling): fold loft into the roof dispatcher; thatch routes to loft
Slice 2 (ADR-0021). `recommend_roof_insulation` now owns the loft branch as the
fallback — a plain pitched loft, a thatched roof (the covering doesn't block
insulating the loft floor), or an unlodged roof type all take loft (joist)
insulation at 300 mm when `roof_insulation_thickness == 0`. Sloping is tested
first; a no-access roof gets nothing. Retired the standalone
`recommend_loft_insulation`; the orchestrator and its tests now call the
dispatcher.

Pinned: thatch before→after (None→300) reproduces at 1e-4; the existing loft pin
still holds through the dispatcher. Behaviour-preserving on the golden cohort
(roof measure unchanged: none across all 57) — the dispatch is strictly more
precise (won't fire loft on a sloping/no-access roof).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-04 21:12:01 +00:00
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar
6484610b6c feat(modelling): recommend_roof_insulation insulates a sloping ceiling
Slice 1 of the roof-insulation generator (ADR-0021). New `recommend_roof_insulation`
dispatcher keys on the `roof_construction_type` string: a "sloping ceiling" roof
that is uninsulated (roof_insulation_thickness 0/None) gets a single
`sloping_ceiling_insulation` Option whose overlay raises roof_insulation_thickness
to 100 mm. Pinned against the Elmhurst before→after cert 001431 at 1e-4.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-04 21:02:06 +00:00
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar
ea4534f3af feat(modelling): system-built walls take EWI+IWI (blocked on basement-code fix)
System-built (precast/no-fines concrete) takes both solid-wall Options like
solid brick (ADR-0019), keyed on `wall_construction == 6` (WALL_SYSTEM_BUILT,
Elmhurst `SY`). A basement-suitability guard (`main_wall_is_basement`) is added
since a below-ground basement wall is never EWI/IWI-suitable.

This is currently inert: `B Basement wall` also maps to 6 (mapper.py:2100) and
`main_wall_is_basement` is derived as `wall_construction == 6`, so every code-6
wall reads as basement and is guarded out — the live cohort is unchanged. The
system-built EWI/IWI cascade pin is committed as a strict-xfail tripwire that
flips green the moment the calculator disambiguates system-built from basement
(MAIN wall_construction==6 with main_wall_is_basement False). `wall_construction
== 8` is Park home, not system-built — not keyed.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-04 18:26:08 +00:00
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar
dab2e759bf feat(geospatial): read planning restrictions co-located with coordinates
Slice 3a (ADR-0020). PlanningRestrictions relocated out of the solid-wall
generator into domain/geospatial/ as the shared, Property-level value object
(three distinct flags + measure-specific blocks_external/blocks_internal).
GeospatialRepository gains a non-abstract planning_restrictions_for defaulting
to None (sources without the flags need not implement it); GeospatialS3Repository
reads conservation_status/is_listed_building/is_heritage_building from the same
Open-UPRN partition as the coordinates (legacy column names — to confirm in the
S3 deep-dive). Shared _row_for helper dedups the partition lookup.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-04 16:26:51 +00:00
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar
7648032d73 feat(modelling): wire solid-wall insulation into the candidate pool
Slice 2e. recommend_solid_wall joins the orchestrator's fabric generator pool
(restrictions default unrestricted until slice 3 sources them); the harness
catalogue + contingencies (26%) gain external_wall_insulation /
internal_wall_insulation. run_modelling on an uninsulated solid-brick dwelling
(baseline SAP 36.6) now selects internal wall insulation into the optimised
package; the catalogue-completeness guard covers both new measure types.
Golden cohort 57/57 still error-free; IWI now fires on a real cohort cert.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-04 16:15:56 +00:00
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar
0cef044503 feat(modelling): flat gate drops EWI on solid-wall insulation
Slice 2d. A flat can take IWI (its own unit) but not EWI (whole-block
coordination) — ADR-0019. _is_flat handles both ingestion representations:
the Elmhurst name form ('Flat') and the API stringified RdSAP code ('2' = Flat
per PROPERTY_TYPE_LOOKUP). Completes slice 2's eligibility surface.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-04 15:54:44 +00:00
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar
51ea4993a0 feat(modelling): planning-restriction gate on solid-wall insulation
Slice 2c. recommend_solid_wall takes a PlanningRestrictions value object
(defaults unrestricted): a conservation area removes the EWI Option (external
appearance), a listed or heritage building removes both EWI and IWI (protected
fabric) -> None when nothing survives (ADR-0019). Plus a guard that a cavity
wall yields no solid-wall Recommendation (it is handled by recommend_cavity
_wall). PlanningRestrictions will be sourced onto the Property from the
geospatial layer in slice 3 (ADR-0020).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-04 15:41:22 +00:00
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar
ac78771258 feat(modelling): solid-wall generator offers IWI-only for timber frame
Slice 2b. Timber frame (wall_construction=5) takes internal wall insulation but
not external (not constructable — ADR-0019), so the generator offers IWI only.
Cascade pin: the IWI Option reproduces the re-lodged timber-frame after at
abs(diff) <= 1e-4 (general Table 6 insulation-thickness bucket, not the solid-
brick documentary path).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-04 15:33:46 +00:00
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar
1c7997c471 feat(modelling): solid-wall generator offers EWI+IWI for solid brick
Slice 2a. New recommend_solid_wall emits one Main-wall Recommendation carrying
External + Internal wall-insulation Options for an uninsulated (wall_insulation
_type=4) solid-brick (wall_construction=3) main wall, each priced at the heat-
loss wall area. Cascade pin: the generator's EWI and IWI Options reproduce
their respective re-lodged afters at abs(diff) <= 1e-4.

Detection keys on wall_construction code, not description (ADR-0019 note
corrected): the Elmhurst ingestion path leaves walls[].description empty, so
the code is the only cross-path signal; codes 1-5 are consistent.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-04 15:28:15 +00:00
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar
68aa80c174 feat(modelling): overlay models solid-wall insulation (IWI/EWI), pinned
Slice 1 of solid-wall insulation. BuildingPartOverlay gains a
wall_insulation_thickness field; the generic applicator already folds it onto
SapBuildingPart by name. With wall_insulation_type=1 (EWI) / 3 (IWI) + 100 mm,
the calculator derives the post-insulation U-value (§5.8 documentary path,
λ=0.04 default) — and for IWI also lowers the thermal-mass parameter. Two new
Elmhurst before/after cascade pins (solid-brick EWI + IWI, cert 001431)
reproduce the re-lodged after at abs(diff) <= 1e-4 across SAP/CO2/PE.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-04 15:11:26 +00:00
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar
b3f4609c2d feat(modelling): wire Valuation Uplift onto the Plan
The Plan derives its Valuation Uplift (ADR-0018) from its baseline -> post
band jump and works+contingency cost, given one external input — the
Property's current market value (a Property Valuation, mostly absent).
`Plan.valuation` / `Plan.baseline_epc_rating` are derived like the other
headline figures; `PlanModel.from_domain` maps the £ forms to the live
plan.valuation_* columns (NULL when no value — the percentage is not
persisted on those columns). `Property.current_market_value` is the new
optional source; the orchestrator threads it onto the Plan. `run_one`
takes a `current_market_value` so the harness can value the uplift, and
the sense-check table shows the average % (always) plus the £ forms when
known.

Sourcing the current market value (upload / default) remains deferred
(ADR-0018); it is None throughout until that lands, so the columns stay
NULL at scale.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-04 08:59:04 +00:00
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar
e6f54df92b feat(modelling): ValuationUplift domain class (percentage-primary)
The financial-uplift model per ADR-0018. `estimate_valuation_uplift(
current_band, target_band, current_value=None, total_cost=None)` returns
a `ValuationUplift`: band-transition uplift compounded from four broker
tables (MoneySupermarket / Lloyds per-step, Knight Frank / Rightmove
whole-jump), taking min/max/mean across the covering sources. Always a
percentage; absolute £ forms (increase at each bound + post-retrofit
value) only when a current market value is supplied; the 2x ROI cap
rescales the percentages and can only bite once a value is known. A
non-improving jump is a clean 0% no-op.

Pure function, no external dependency. Persisting it (where the value
lands) and sourcing the current market value stay deferred (ADR-0018).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-04 08:33:19 +00:00
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar
31da90f5eb feat(modelling): persist recommendation.material_id from the catalogue
Expand half of the recommendation_materials retirement (ADR-0017). A
Plan Measure installs a single Product, so thread its catalogue id end to
end — Product.id -> MeasureOption.material_id -> PlanMeasure.material_id
-> recommendation.material_id — replacing the per-material BOM child
table with one nullable column on the row. ProductPostgresRepository
reads the id from MaterialRow; the four fabric generators set it on their
Option; the orchestrator carries it onto the Plan Measure; the mirror
declares + maps the column. Optional throughout (the JSON stopgap
catalogue carries no ids -> NULL).

The multi-measure integration test now pins each persisted measure's
material_id to its seeded MaterialRow id. Migration spec (live column
must be added before this deploys; contraction is the owner's next step)
in docs/migrations/recommendation-material-id.md.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-04 08:26:58 +00:00
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar
2fbd7147b7 refactor(modelling): move PortfolioGoal to domain/modelling/
PortfolioGoal is domain vocabulary (a Scenario's goal — legacy planning branches
on PortfolioGoal.INCREASING_EPC), so it belongs in domain/ co-located with
scenario.py, mirroring how domain/epc/wall_type.py holds an enum that
infrastructure/ imports. This lets the consolidated ScenarioModel (next slice)
source the goal enum from domain without an infra→backend dependency.
portfolio.py keeps a re-export so every existing
`from ...portfolio import PortfolioGoal` caller is unaffected.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-03 22:44:48 +00:00
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar
b976c3abd2 feat(modelling): attribute per-measure bill savings via a telescoping cascade
`_plan_for` now scores the baseline + every cumulative prefix once
(`cascade_scores`, best-practice order) and reuses those Scores for both the
role-3 marginal attribution and a per-measure bill cascade: bill each prefix at
one Fuel Rates snapshot and take consecutive Bill deltas as each measure's
marginal delivered-kWh and £ saving. Saving is signed (ventilation is
negative) and telescopes exactly to the Plan headline savings, because the
Plan's baseline/post Bills are now the same cascade endpoints (`bills[0]` /
`bills[-1]`) — which also drops the redundant standalone baseline `calculate`.

`recommendation.kwh_savings` / `energy_cost_savings` are filled from these.
Adds `Bill.total_consumption_kwh` (shared by Plan + the orchestrator). Pinned
end-to-end on the real calculator: Σ per-measure savings == the Plan totals
(ADR-0014 amendment).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-03 18:01:11 +00:00
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar
7e79c30af1 feat(modelling): Plan Measure carries per-measure kwh/cost savings
`PlanMeasure` grows optional `kwh_savings` (delivered energy) and
`energy_cost_savings` (£) — its slice of the telescoping bill cascade, signed
so positive is a saving and `None` until billing runs. `RecommendationRow`
declares the matching live `recommendation.kwh_savings` /
`energy_cost_savings` columns and maps them in `from_domain` (None → NULL).
The vestigial `recommendation.energy_savings` stays undeclared (legacy = 0).
No FE migration — the columns already exist on the live table (ADR-0014 / 0017).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-03 17:58:06 +00:00
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar
e79ffabfc5 refactor(modelling): expose cascade_scores for the role-3 + bill cascade
Pull the cumulative-prefix scoring out of `marginal_impacts` into a reusable
`cascade_scores(scorer, baseline, overlays) -> list[Score]` (index 0 the
baseline, one calculator run per prefix) plus a pure `marginals_from_scores`.
Each Score carries its SapResult, so the next slice's telescoping per-measure
bill cascade can re-bill the same prefixes the role-3 attribution already
scores — no extra `calculate` calls (ADR-0014 / ADR-0016). `marginal_impacts`
now delegates; behaviour unchanged.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-03 17:54:54 +00:00
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar
26de28aae8 feat(modelling): Plan carries baseline/post Bills and derives the energy figures
Plan gains optional baseline_bill / post_bill (the Bills derived for the
unmodified and post-package end-states at one Fuel Rates snapshot) and derives
the four plan-level columns: post_energy_bill (post total), energy_bill_savings
(baseline - post), post_energy_consumption (Σ post section kWh), and
energy_consumption_savings (baseline - post delivered kWh). All return None until
billing runs (persisted as NULL), so existing Plan construction and the
not-yet-wired orchestrator stay green. Plan-level only; per-measure savings are a
later slice (ADR-0014 amendment).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-03 17:23:20 +00:00
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar
2bbc401f0d feat(modelling): Score carries the scored SapResult for billing
Score gains sap_result: Optional[SapResult], populated by PackageScorer with the
calculator output its headline figures came from. This lets the Modelling stage
price the post-package (and baseline) end-state via Bill Derivation reusing a
SapResult already computed by the optimiser's re-score / the orchestrator's
baseline score — no second calculate (ADR-0014 amendment). The optimiser reads
only sap_continuous, so it stays domain-agnostic and the stub scorers (which omit
sap_result) are unaffected — all optimiser tests pass unchanged.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-03 17:20:45 +00:00
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar
af501fce0e feat(modelling): ventilation-aware selection — price the forced dependency in
The warm-start (and max-gain fallback) now price each forced Measure Dependency
the candidate triggers, not just inject it afterwards: optimise/optimise_min_cost
fold dependencies into each candidate's cost+gain via _augmented_cost_gain, and
optimise_package scores each dependency's true role-1 signal (_with_role1_signals)
instead of the 0.0 placeholder. This stops the min-cost objective (i) ignoring the
~£900 a wall drags in (a wall-free package reaching target can be cheaper) and
(ii) picking a small-gain wall whose mandatory ventilation (down to -5 SAP) makes
it net-negative, which repair cannot un-pick.

Budget is now a hard envelope: the constraint applies to the augmented (measure +
its ventilation) cost, so a wall that fits alone but whose ventilation would bust
the budget is DROPPED rather than forced over budget. This reverses the earlier
'forced regardless of budget' call (which made sense when selection was
ventilation-blind). Safety invariant intact — presence still injected on every
path; we just never recommend a wall we can't afford to ventilate. ADR-0016
amendment updated. 94 modelling+orchestration tests pass.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-03 16:16:26 +00:00
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar
2bf42d046e feat(modelling): optimise_package targets least-cost, falls back to max-gain
Rewire the objective per the ADR-0016 amendment. With a target_sap (Increasing
EPC): warm-start optimise_min_cost (cheapest package reaching target_gain =
target_sap - baseline within budget) -> inject dependencies -> re-score ->
repair toward target; if the warm-start is infeasible or the repaired package
still falls short on the true score, fall back to max-gain-within-budget (best
effort). Without a target_sap: max-gain (unchanged). The min-cost objective
stops at the target without overshooting into a higher band; surplus budget is
left unspent. Extracted _max_gain_package (no-target path + fallback) and
_repair_to_target (inject + re-score + greedy repair). Dependency injection and
the repair loop are preserved; all prior optimiser + dependency tests pass
unchanged. Ventilation-aware *selection* is the next slice; injection is still
post-warm-start here.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-03 15:43:06 +00:00
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar
05a4f5f84a feat(modelling): optimise_min_cost — least-cost-to-target selector (#1152 follow-up)
Exact-enumeration sibling to optimise(): pick <=1 option per group to minimise
total cost subject to total gain >= target_gain and cost <= budget (None =
unconstrained). Ties broken toward higher gain ('recommend more'). Returns None
when no package within budget reaches the target (caller falls back to
max-gain); a non-positive target is met by the empty package. This is the
warm-start objective for an Increasing EPC goal per the ADR-0016 amendment
(least-cost-to-target, not max-gain). Dependency-blind for now; ventilation-aware
selection lands in a later slice.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-03 15:31:26 +00:00
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar
02afc04ce2 refactor(modelling): ventilation_dependency delegates to the generator + wraps
measure_dependency.py now owns only the selection semantics: the trigger set and
the forced-edge wrapping. It delegates production (detection + pricing) to
recommend_ventilation and wraps the returned Recommendation into the
MeasureDependency, picking the cheapest Option (one MEV today; readies the seam
for MEV-c / MVHR). The orchestrator's _measure_dependencies call is unchanged.
Trimmed the now-redundant option-detail assertions — those live in
test_ventilation_recommendation. 138 pass, behaviour-preserving.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-03 14:04:17 +00:00
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar
631df921de feat(modelling): ventilation Recommendation Generator (detect + price)
recommend_ventilation(epc, products) does the same two jobs as wall/roof/floor —
detect applicability (the has_ventilation guard) and price the work (2 MEV units
+ contingency) — and returns a Recommendation. Ventilation is a Recommendation
like the others; what makes it special (forced when fabric is selected, excluded
from the free pool) stays in the Measure Dependency layer. Detect + price now
live in generators/, not inline in measure_dependency.py. Note it is NOT run by
the candidate-pool runner — it is consumed only by the dependency path.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-03 14:01:14 +00:00
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar
84ec6da032 refactor(modelling): group domain/modelling into generators/scoring/optimisation
domain/modelling/ had grown to 15 flat modules. Group the behavioural ones into
subpackages — generators/ (wall/roof/floor Recommendation Generators), scoring/
(overlay applicator, package scorer, role-1/3 scoring), optimisation/ (optimiser
+ measure dependency) — and leave the shared value-object vocabulary
(recommendation, plan, scenario, product, contingencies, simulation) flat at the
top, since it is imported everywhere. Pure move + import-path rewrite across 89
import sites; no behaviour change. 136 pass, pyright strict clean.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-03 13:48:36 +00:00
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar
0fec069988 feat(modelling): wire the ventilation Measure Dependency into the orchestrator (#1161)
ModellingOrchestrator builds the ventilation dependency per Property
(suppressed when already mechanically ventilated) and passes it to
optimise_package, so a selected wall measure forces MEV into the package before
the re-score. Ventilation joins the role-3 cascade in best-practice order
(walls -> roof -> ventilation -> floor) and persists as a Plan Measure carrying
its real negative marginal and its cost. Added the mechanical_ventilation
contingency rate (0.26, per legacy Costs.CONTINGENCIES). Integration test now
seeds the ventilation Product and asserts the forced measure persists with
<=0 SAP and 2x900 cost; the full-pipeline test seeds the Product too (the
dependency is built for every not-yet-ventilated dwelling). On 000490 the real
calculator scores MEV at -1.275 SAP.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-03 13:34:40 +00:00
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar
1bf5b4102d feat(modelling): ventilation Measure Dependency builder + has_ventilation guard (#1161)
ventilation_dependency(epc, products) returns the forced 'fabric requires
ventilation' edge: triggers = MEASURES_NEEDING_VENTILATION (cavity/internal/
external wall, mirroring legacy assumptions.measures_needing_ventilation), and a
required Option installing decentralised MEV (mechanical_ventilation_kind=
EXTRACT_OR_PIV_OUTSIDE), priced at two fully-loaded units. Returns None when the
dwelling already lodges a mechanical ventilation kind (legacy has_ventilation
guard), so MEV is never forced onto an already-ventilated dwelling.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-03 13:27:56 +00:00
Khalim Conn-Kowlessar
6b11c90295 feat(modelling): inject forced Measure Dependencies into the package (#1161)
MeasureDependency(triggers, required) is a data-declared 'A requires B' edge.
optimise_package gains a dependencies param: after the warm-start it injects any
dependency whose triggers intersect the selected measure-types, BEFORE the
whole-package re-score, so the dependency's (negative) SAP lands in the truthful
figure and the undershoot/repair decision (ADR-0016). Forced — injected
regardless of budget — but its cost counts toward package spend, so repair sees
less headroom. Repair candidates fold in any dependency they newly trigger, so
their marginal SAP-per-£ and incremental cost are truthful. The dependency never
competes in the optimiser pool. Returned selected includes the injected deps.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-03 13:25:40 +00:00