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Model/modelling_audit.md
Jun-te Kim 009394bb19 neighbour_divergence: key cohorts on main-heating fuel 
The neighbour SAP-divergence cohort was (postcode, property_type, built_form),
which mixed electric- and gas-heated dwellings. Electricity scores materially
lower in SAP than mains gas for identical fabric, so a mixed-fuel postcode
produced cross-fuel false outliers — an electric dwelling flagged only for being
electric among gas neighbours.

Add the main-heating fuel class to the cohort key (electricity variants — 29/30
+ off-peak 31-40 — collapse to one class; every other code is its own bucket).
Now every flagged divergence is a same-fuel comparison worth investigating. On
portfolio 814 this refined 20 raw divergences to 17 same-fuel ones while keeping
the genuine within-fuel outliers (e.g. the all-electric WC2B 4AW flats at SAP
26/38 vs a cohort median of 67).

Reaches the fuel via epc_main_heating_detail through the indexed property_id —
still never touches the recommendation table. Surfaced by the portfolio-814
recommendation audit (Work item B, #1388).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-01 14:24:31 +00:00

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# Modelling anomaly audit
Scanned **338** properties · flagged **360** anomalies across **6** checks.
## plan-score-below-baseline (HIGH) — 3
- property **742302** (uprn 100022921559): post SAP 70.5 below effective baseline 72.0 (Δ-1.5)
- property **742367** (uprn 5300072135): post SAP 68.9 below effective baseline 70.0 (Δ-1.1)
- property **742368** (uprn 5300072136): post SAP 70.4 below effective baseline 71.0 (Δ-0.6)
## plan-stops-short-of-goal (HIGH) — 311
- property **742063** (uprn 10010200962): post D (60.29299) short of goal B on an unlimited-budget scenario (cost_of_works £10378)
- property **742064** (uprn 10010206037): post C (69.27856) short of goal B on an unlimited-budget scenario (cost_of_works £9339)
- property **742065** (uprn 10010206038): post C (78.81704) short of goal B on an unlimited-budget scenario (cost_of_works £1043)
- property **742066** (uprn 10010206039): post C (76.22735) short of goal B on an unlimited-budget scenario (cost_of_works £7876)
- property **742067** (uprn 10010206040): post C (72.775085) short of goal B on an unlimited-budget scenario (cost_of_works £7682)
- property **742068** (uprn 10010206041): post C (74.29278) short of goal B on an unlimited-budget scenario (cost_of_works £8510)
- property **742069** (uprn 10010206042): post C (70.24012) short of goal B on an unlimited-budget scenario (cost_of_works £7638)
- property **742070** (uprn 10010206043): post C (72.3706) short of goal B on an unlimited-budget scenario (cost_of_works £3702)
- property **742072** (uprn 34003067): post D (61.096947) short of goal B on an unlimited-budget scenario (cost_of_works £13391)
- property **742073** (uprn 34003068): post D (61.096947) short of goal B on an unlimited-budget scenario (cost_of_works £13391)
- property **742075** (uprn 34003070): post D (61.096947) short of goal B on an unlimited-budget scenario (cost_of_works £13391)
- property **742076** (uprn 34003071): post D (61.096947) short of goal B on an unlimited-budget scenario (cost_of_works £13391)
- property **742079** (uprn 12013027): post C (78.44673) short of goal B on an unlimited-budget scenario (cost_of_works £2892)
- property **742080** (uprn 12013028): post D (62.603214) short of goal B on an unlimited-budget scenario (cost_of_works £3372)
- property **742081** (uprn 12013029): post C (74.525345) short of goal B on an unlimited-budget scenario (cost_of_works £1029)
- property **742082** (uprn 12013030): post C (78.44673) short of goal B on an unlimited-budget scenario (cost_of_works £2892)
- property **742083** (uprn 12013031): post C (78.44673) short of goal B on an unlimited-budget scenario (cost_of_works £2892)
- property **742084** (uprn 12013032): post C (73.37248) short of goal B on an unlimited-budget scenario (cost_of_works £1057)
- property **742085** (uprn 12013033): post D (68.01724) short of goal B on an unlimited-budget scenario (cost_of_works £1057)
- property **742086** (uprn 12013034): post D (61.581734) short of goal B on an unlimited-budget scenario (cost_of_works £3610)
- property **742087** (uprn 12013038): post C (78.44673) short of goal B on an unlimited-budget scenario (cost_of_works £2892)
- property **742088** (uprn 12013042): post C (74.92009) short of goal B on an unlimited-budget scenario (cost_of_works £3404)
- property **742090** (uprn 12013044): post C (73.35894) short of goal B on an unlimited-budget scenario (cost_of_works £1057)
- property **742091** (uprn 12013045): post C (73.37248) short of goal B on an unlimited-budget scenario (cost_of_works £1057)
- property **742092** (uprn 12013046): post D (60.531925) short of goal B on an unlimited-budget scenario (cost_of_works £1029)
- property **742093** (uprn 12013047): post C (74.26961) short of goal B on an unlimited-budget scenario (cost_of_works £2899)
- property **742094** (uprn 12013048): post C (78.44673) short of goal B on an unlimited-budget scenario (cost_of_works £2892)
- property **742095** (uprn 100020233237): post C (68.751595) short of goal B on an unlimited-budget scenario (cost_of_works £0)
- property **742096** (uprn 100020233238): post C (68.751595) short of goal B on an unlimited-budget scenario (cost_of_works £0)
- property **742097** (uprn 100020233239): post C (72.782684) short of goal B on an unlimited-budget scenario (cost_of_works £7684)
- property **742098** (uprn 100020233240): post D (67.203026) short of goal B on an unlimited-budget scenario (cost_of_works £633)
- property **742099** (uprn 100020233241): post D (67.30785) short of goal B on an unlimited-budget scenario (cost_of_works £3400)
- property **742100** (uprn 100020233242): post C (68.658844) short of goal B on an unlimited-budget scenario (cost_of_works £35)
- property **742101** (uprn 100020233243): post D (66.59807) short of goal B on an unlimited-budget scenario (cost_of_works £3285)
- property **742102** (uprn 100020233244): post C (68.751595) short of goal B on an unlimited-budget scenario (cost_of_works £0)
- property **742103** (uprn 100020233204): post C (68.751595) short of goal B on an unlimited-budget scenario (cost_of_works £0)
- property **742104** (uprn 100020233205): post D (66.40878) short of goal B on an unlimited-budget scenario (cost_of_works £32)
- property **742105** (uprn 100020233206): post C (68.751595) short of goal B on an unlimited-budget scenario (cost_of_works £0)
- property **742106** (uprn 100020233207): post C (68.751595) short of goal B on an unlimited-budget scenario (cost_of_works £0)
- property **742107** (uprn 100020233208): post C (68.751595) short of goal B on an unlimited-budget scenario (cost_of_works £0)
- property **742108** (uprn 100020233209): post C (68.751595) short of goal B on an unlimited-budget scenario (cost_of_works £0)
- property **742109** (uprn 100020233210): post C (74.14777) short of goal B on an unlimited-budget scenario (cost_of_works £3070)
- property **742110** (uprn 100020233211): post C (68.751595) short of goal B on an unlimited-budget scenario (cost_of_works £0)
- property **742111** (uprn 100020233212): post C (68.751595) short of goal B on an unlimited-budget scenario (cost_of_works £0)
- property **742112** (uprn 100020233213): post C (68.751595) short of goal B on an unlimited-budget scenario (cost_of_works £0)
- property **742113** (uprn 100020233235): post C (69.19524) short of goal B on an unlimited-budget scenario (cost_of_works £4861)
- property **742114** (uprn 100020233236): post C (73.46247) short of goal B on an unlimited-budget scenario (cost_of_works £7126)
- property **742116** (uprn 100020942574): post D (67.459236) short of goal B on an unlimited-budget scenario (cost_of_works £28)
- property **742117** (uprn 100020942575): post D (67.459236) short of goal B on an unlimited-budget scenario (cost_of_works £28)
- property **742118** (uprn 100020942576): post D (67.459236) short of goal B on an unlimited-budget scenario (cost_of_works £28)
- … and 261 more (see CSV)
## already-meets-goal-with-works (MEDIUM) — 4
- property **742077** (uprn 34156817): already B >= goal B but cost_of_works £4515
- property **742078** (uprn 34156818): already B >= goal B but cost_of_works £4515
- property **742207** (uprn 100081143001): already B >= goal B but cost_of_works £1029
- property **742269** (uprn 100022769436): already B >= goal B but cost_of_works £1029
## zero-works-post-differs (MEDIUM) — 2
- property **742302** (uprn 100022921559): £0 works but post SAP 70.5 != effective 72.0
- property **742367** (uprn 5300072135): £0 works but post SAP 68.9 != effective 70.0
## effective-lodged-divergence (LOW) — 9
- property **742131** (uprn 148013838): effective 62 vs lodged 47 (Δ+15, reason=pre_sap10)
- property **742132** (uprn 148013839): effective 62 vs lodged 47 (Δ+15, reason=pre_sap10)
- property **742204** (uprn 100081142998): effective 69 vs lodged 54 (Δ+15, reason=pre_sap10)
- property **742206** (uprn 100081143000): effective 69 vs lodged 54 (Δ+15, reason=pre_sap10)
- property **742208** (uprn 100081143002): effective 59 vs lodged 44 (Δ+15, reason=pre_sap10)
- property **742216** (uprn 100081143009): effective 69 vs lodged 54 (Δ+15, reason=pre_sap10)
- property **742355** (uprn 100022982934): effective 63 vs lodged 47 (Δ+16, reason=pre_sap10)
- property **742394** (uprn 100022909582): effective 71 vs lodged 86 (Δ-15, reason=pre_sap10)
- property **742395** (uprn 100022909583): effective 72 vs lodged 87 (Δ-15, reason=pre_sap10)
## negative-bill-savings (LOW) — 31
- property **742065** (uprn 10010206038): energy_bill_savings £-454/yr on £1043 of works
- property **742066** (uprn 10010206039): energy_bill_savings £-417/yr on £7876 of works
- property **742068** (uprn 10010206041): energy_bill_savings £-442/yr on £8510 of works
- property **742145** (uprn 5300022461): energy_bill_savings £-799/yr on £3196 of works
- property **742146** (uprn 5300022470): energy_bill_savings £-799/yr on £3196 of works
- property **742147** (uprn 5300022471): energy_bill_savings £-799/yr on £3196 of works
- property **742148** (uprn 5300022472): energy_bill_savings £-685/yr on £3270 of works
- property **742149** (uprn 5300022473): energy_bill_savings £-799/yr on £3196 of works
- property **742150** (uprn 5300022474): energy_bill_savings £-799/yr on £3196 of works
- property **742151** (uprn 5300022475): energy_bill_savings £-799/yr on £3196 of works
- property **742153** (uprn 5300022477): energy_bill_savings £-746/yr on £3196 of works
- property **742155** (uprn 5300022479): energy_bill_savings £-799/yr on £3196 of works
- property **742156** (uprn 5300022462): energy_bill_savings £-799/yr on £3196 of works
- property **742157** (uprn 5300022480): energy_bill_savings £-517/yr on £11607 of works
- property **742158** (uprn 5300022481): energy_bill_savings £-799/yr on £3196 of works
- property **742159** (uprn 5300022482): energy_bill_savings £-799/yr on £3196 of works
- property **742160** (uprn 5300022483): energy_bill_savings £-799/yr on £3196 of works
- property **742161** (uprn 5300022484): energy_bill_savings £-799/yr on £3196 of works
- property **742162** (uprn 5300022485): energy_bill_savings £-799/yr on £3196 of works
- property **742163** (uprn 5300022486): energy_bill_savings £-799/yr on £3196 of works
- property **742164** (uprn 5300022487): energy_bill_savings £-799/yr on £3196 of works
- property **742166** (uprn 5300022489): energy_bill_savings £-799/yr on £3196 of works
- property **742167** (uprn 5300022463): energy_bill_savings £-799/yr on £3196 of works
- property **742168** (uprn 5300022490): energy_bill_savings £-799/yr on £3196 of works
- property **742169** (uprn 5300022491): energy_bill_savings £-799/yr on £3196 of works
- property **742170** (uprn 5300022492): energy_bill_savings £-799/yr on £3196 of works
- property **742171** (uprn 5300022464): energy_bill_savings £-799/yr on £3196 of works
- property **742172** (uprn 5300022465): energy_bill_savings £-799/yr on £3196 of works
- property **742174** (uprn 5300022467): energy_bill_savings £-922/yr on £1057 of works
- property **742176** (uprn 5300022469): energy_bill_savings £-799/yr on £3196 of works
- property **742265** (uprn 10033526327): energy_bill_savings £-896/yr on £10682 of works
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